Altos Research Real Estate Insights - House Prices

Real Estate Market Case Shiller ETFs almost here

nospam@example.com (Mike Simonsen) — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 08:13:26 -0700

UPDATE: IPO June 30, 2009 - Here's the latest on the MacroMarkets Housing ETF

Getting closer to reality: Yesterday Bob Shiller's firm MacroMarkets announced that they've cleared the final approval for their exchange-traded funds based on the Case Shiller Index.

I've written in the past how huge this is. You can finally stem your real estate losses in a falling housing market. Or you can bet on the return of the market. And it's as easy as buying a stock on e-trade.

From the press release

MacroShares Major Metro Housing will provide investors with much needed access to the housing asset class, allowing for investment in either the upward or downward movement of home prices. The securities are designed to track the change in U.S. Home Prices as measured by the closely-followed S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Home Price Index through the termination date. The paired securities will have a ten year term and will feature a 2x (200%) leverage factor.
...

Robert Shiller, co-founder and Chief Economist of MacroMarkets noted, "As recent events have proven, our global economy will benefit from modern, transparent, market based risk management solutions. Ongoing private sector innovation remains a vital complement to governmental efforts to modernize and protect our financial institutions, and I am confident that MacroShares will help meet a key 21st century economic challenge: delivering greater market access, new price discovery and liquidity to real estate."

Case Shiller based options and futures have been listed on the Chicago Merc for several years now. But the mechanics of that trade and account system have made it virtually impossible for anyone outside of Wall Street (aka the "End Users") to take advantage.

The funds are scheduled to IPO November 3. They'll trade with NYSE:UMM (which goes up when home prices go up.) and NYSE:DMM (which goes up when home prices decline)

These are unique financial instruments. In particular they don't own any real estate assets. This is not like a Gold ETF that buys gold and keeps it in an Amsterdam warehouse. Rather these funds hold cash (or treasuries). The cash moves from one to the other depending on the movement in the underlying Case Shiller 10-city composite. There are other peculiarities of these things too, but suffice it to say that these are the simplest, most direct way (only way?) to make money in real estate without going out and buying physical property. More complete review is here.

Obvious disclaimer: don't take my advice about financial instruments or investing.

Case Shiller Index Falls 1% in July

nospam@example.com (Mike Simonsen) — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 08:18:18 -0700

Here are the Case Shiller Index numbers released today for July. No big surprise. Down of course. One percent more this month. Down 17% from July 2007. As I've been saying in the press lately, we've seen no signs of a bottom. Even before the crisis of the last couple weeks, pricing through September continues to be down sequentially.

As we've already measured, the next three months of the Case Shiller numbers continue their fall at the same pace. Price decreases through September have not accelerated. There are no signs of market inflection points yet either. Days on Market is climbing and Inventories are flat at best. Contact us if you want specifics on the CSI for a given future date or a given MSA market.

MSA	CSI July 2008	Change from June 2008	Year over year change
Boston	162.58	0.17%	-5.35%
Chicago	149.6	-0.35%	-9.95%
Denver	132.67	0.77%	-4.71%
Las Vegas	154.15	-2.75%	-29.90%
Los Angeles	192.55	-1.63%	-26.18%
Miami	186.84	-1.60%	-28.25%
New York	192.92	-0.76%	-7.41%
San Diego	172.2	-1.81%	-25.02%
San Francisco	156.88	-1.85%	-24.81%
Washington DC	195.49	-1.07%	-15.80%
10-City Composite	178.46	-1.09%	-17.49%

Our National Report for September data comes out later this week with the current view on the market rather than the backward looking stuff released today. Stay tuned for details

Report: Real Estate Prices Down by 1.5% in August

nospam@example.com (Mike Simonsen) — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 07:15:35 -0700

Our Latest National Housing Market Report is out. You can download the PDF here.

From the press release:

Mountain View, CA September 5, 2008 -- The Altos 10-City Composite Price Index showed a decline in asking prices of 1.5% in August and 2.3% for the past three months. Prices of properties listed for-sale fell in 20 of 25 major markets according to the Real-Time Real Estate Report,published by Altos Research, the premier source for real-time real estate research, and market analysis consultancy Real IQ.

Asking prices fell at the fastest rate in Las Vegas -- down 4.8% during August -- and 8.6% over the most recent three-month period for an annualized rate of nearly 35%. Listing prices rose at the fastest rate in Denver -- up 1.9% in August -- followed by San Diego where prices were up 1.4%.

"Many markets that had posted multi-month sequential price increases during the Summer months displayed fresh weakness in August," said Stephen Bedikian, partner and research director for Real IQ. "This could portend a general resumption of the downward trend in prices as most markets typically experience seasonal weakness in the Fall and Winter months."

Inventory levels declined in 21 of 25 markets. Inventory fell by the largest amounts in Seattle and Dallas with inventory contracting 6.0% and 4.8% respectively. Many markets showed inventory declines of more than two percent for the past month including: San Francisco, San Jose, Washington, D.C., San Diego, Phoenix, Charlotte and Houston.

"While seasonal weakness is typical in the Fall and Winter months, continued widespread inventory reductions like we saw in August could temper near-term price declines," said Michael Simonsen, CEO and co-founder of Altos Research.

Sixteen of 26 markets had an average days-on-market of 100 or more. Days-on-market declined in just three of 26 markets. By far, the market with the slowest rate of inventory turnover was again Miami at an average of 160 days-on-market. Both San Diego and San Francisco experienced the fastest rate of inventory turnover at an average of 84 days-on-market, followed closely by Austin at 86 days.

Data in the Real-Time Housing Market Report is based on analysis of over one million properties currently listed for-sale in 26 metropolitan markets across the country. The report is the most timely source of housing market data on current market activity.

The report examines housing pricing, inventory levels and market conditions in 31 major U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): Atlanta, Austin, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington, DC. The Real-Time Real Estate Report is released every month.

The Best and Worst Performing Zip Codes Around the Country

nospam@example.com (Mike Simonsen) — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 09:07:35 -0700

Altos scores the big spread in BusinessWeek today! I was really happy to fulfill this request. The folks at BW wanted a national real estate slide show that wasn't just yet another chronicle of the market meltdown. They wanted to see where things were good too. Grown weary of all-bad-California-all-the-time, they also asked to take a look at 20 or so major metros around the country. So we suggested that we pick a nice sampling of metros, and then find the best and worst performing zip codes in each (in terms of median home price over the last year.)

And you know what? We found some very interesting trends. Aside from poor Las Vegas, we are able to find some healthy pricing trends in every metro we sampled.

What do the up markets have in common? Well, almost without exception, they're the nice parts of town. The biggest down zip codes? Again almost without exception, the hardest hit markets are the cheapest parts of town.

The phenomenon is working like this: There are a few folks who are well financed, and they for the first time in years, get to buy in the best neighborhoods without a ton of competition. Mortgages are still historically cheap, if in fact you can get one. While at the low end, no one can get financing, and of course those with the craziest mortgages are now selling or foreclosing. The mayhem starts at the bottom.

Check out the full article. Fascinating reading.

Fighting the Good Fight

nospam@example.com (Mike Simonsen) — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 05:17:52 -0700

I twittered this yesterday, but since it's possibly my favorite press coverage my company has received, I figured I blog it today too.

Apparently Hulk Hogan is getting a divorce. He needs, of course, to understand what's happening in the housing market, especially in Las Vegas where he and his soon-to-be-ex have a condo. Where does a pro-wrestler-turned-reality-tv-star turn for the best insights? Why "prominent research firm, Altos Research" of course.

He also pointed out that Linda Bollea obtained an appraisal before his order to close on the property, and that Terry Bollea obtained his own appraisal several weeks after the order. Terry Bollea's appraisal came in at $1,000,000 less than Linda's.

In a statement issued late Friday, Terry Bollea's attorneys said they, "are gratified" by the ruling, adding, "...the sole justification for this transaction offered by Linda Bollea and her attorneys--that it is a good investment--redefines cluelessness...Nowhere is this more true than in Las Vegas, which the prominent firm Altos Research just this week called 'the weakest U.S. housing market.'"

Glad to help, Hulkster. Glad to help.

June 2008 National Real Estate Report Released

nospam@example.com (Mike Simonsen) — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 11:27:03 -0700

We released the latest National Real Estate Report today. You can download it here [PDF].

The data inspects 26 metro markets around the country and tracks home prices, inventory and days on market. We also track the Altos 10-City Composite for a National perspective on the trends.

Here's the press release:

HOUSING PRICES DOWN BY 0.3% IN MAY
Listing Prices Fell in Only 11 of 26 markets
MOUNTAIN VIEW, CA � June 10, 2008 � The Altos 10-City Composite Price Index showed a decline in asking prices of just 0.3% in May. Prices of properties listed for-sale increased in 15 of 26 major markets according to the Real-Time Real Estate Report, jointly published by Altos Research, the premier source for real-time real estate research, and market analysis consultancy Real IQ�.

Asking prices fell at the fastest rate in Las Vegas - down 3.7% during May and 6.5% over the most recent three-month period. Listing prices rose at the fastest rate in Denver up 3.7% and Dallas up 2.2% during May. Prices increased by more than one percent for the month in 11 of 26 markets.

"The weakest markets continue to be concentrated in Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada which all experienced the fastest price increases during the boom times," said Michael Simonsen, CEO and co-founder of Altos Research. "Now these same markets are outpacing others on the downside as foreclosures and price declines continue relentlessly. We�re seeing some stability in many markets outside of these hard-hit states."

Listed property inventories increased substantially with the 10-City Composite markets showing an increase of 7.9% during the first quarter and 3.7% in May. Inventory rose in 25 of 26 markets with the Miami market being the only exception. Inventory actually declined 1.3% in Miami during May and 2.4% during the past three months.

Data in the Real-Time Housing Market Report is based on analysis of over one million properties currently listed for-sale in 26 metropolitan markets across the country. The report is the most timely source of housing market data on current market activity.

For the Altos 10-City Composite, the average days-on-market was 106 � an improvement from 111 in April and 113 in March. Miami experienced the longest time-on-market span with an average days-on-market of 152. San Francisco led all markets with the fastest rate of inventory turnover at an average of 73 days-on-market.

"Continued growth in inventory across virtually all markets will restrain near-term price increases," said Stephen Bedikian, partner and research director for Real IQ. "Markets like Denver and Dallas are showing strength because they did not experience high price inflation during the boom and are showing only limited inventory growth now. Affordability and limited inventory are the keys to a healthy market."

The report examines housing pricing, inventory levels and market conditions in 31 major U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): Atlanta, Austin, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Salt Lake City, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington, DC. The first report was published December 7, 2007 and is released every month. Report downloads are available at: www.altosresearch.com.

May 2008 National Real Estate Report

nospam@example.com (Mike Simonsen) — Fri, 09 May 2008 08:03:41 -0700

Our latest National Real Estate Report is out this morning. The headline this month is that while the Altos National 10-City Composite price fell by 0.6% from last month, prices only fell in 7 of the 25 markets covered in the report. Maybe some signs of life? Too soon to call. Probably just spring.

Here's where you can download the full PDF May 2008 National Real Estate Report.

Here's a chart of our two national housing market composite price metrics.

National Real Estate Prices as measured by the Altos 10-City and Altos 25-City Composites. Data through the first week of May 2008

Here's the full press release:

Housing Prices Down by 0.6% in April 2008

National real estate report sees prices falling in only 7 of 25 metropolitan markets. Real-time real estate data also indicates rising inventories and stabilizing market time in many parts of the country.

Mountain View, May 8 2008 - The Altos 10-City Composite Price Index showed a decline in asking prices of 0.9% over the past three months and continued that decline in April with a decrease of 0.6% for the month. Prices of properties listed for-sale fell in only 7 of 25 major markets according to the Real-Time Real Estate Report, jointly published by Altos Research, the premier source for real-time real estate research,

Asking prices fell at the fastest rate in Las Vegas down 2.7% during April. The largest three-month declines occurred in Las Vegas and Philadelphia, off 5.1% and 4.5% respectively. Listing prices rose at the fastest rate in Denver up 2.6% and Charlotte up 2.1%. Prices also increased by more than one percent in April in Boston, Houston, Dallas and San Francisco.
"While this is not shaping up to be a typically strong spring selling season," said Stephen Bedikian, partner and research director for Real IQ, "we are now seeing price stability or price increases in most markets. During April, only the most troubled markets such as Las Vegas, Miami, Tampa, Philadelphia and Phoenix, continued to show asking price declines."

For-sale property inventories increased in 19 of 25 markets during April. Inventory in the Altos 10-City Composite markets rose just 0.8% for the month and 5.6% during the most recent three-month period. Data in the Real-Time Housing Market Report is based on analysis of over one million properties currently listed for-sale in 31 metropolitan markets across the country.

The report is the most timely source of housing market data on current market activity. For the Altos 10-City Composite, the average days-on-market was 111 an improvement from 119 in March and 122 in February. Miami and Detroit experienced the longest time-on-market spans with an average days-on-market of 153 and 143 respectively. Austin led all markets with the fastest rate of inventory turnover at an average of 67 days-on-market.

"Inventory buildup is typical during the spring selling season but so far it has been fairly modest and that is reflected in the decline in average days-on-market," said Michael Simonsen, CEO and co-founder of Altos Research. "Tight mortgage credit, foreclosures, and economic fears continue to put pressure on the real estate market but if inventory growth remains restrained, we may see supply and demand balance out. "

The report examines housing pricing, inventory levels and market conditions in 31 major U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): Atlanta, Austin, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington, DC. The Real-Time Real Estate Report is released every month.

Charts around the Bay Area for April 14

nospam@example.com (Mike Simonsen) — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 15:12:38 -0700

Spent much of the day looking up data for press requests. Everybody wants to know if we're at a bottom. Thought I'd drop some in here. Not a lot of time to write today, so here are some comparison charts for homes around the Bay Area. San Francisco, Burlingame, Walnut Creek, and San Jose. All Data as of April 11 2008.

Median Price Trends for homes in San Francisco, Burlingame, San Jose, and Walnut Creek.

Days on Market for the same cities. Note the seasonal decline still leaves us higher than last year at this time.

Our Market Action Index for the same cities. This is a composite of market demand statistics rolled into one number. Under 30 implies demand weakness, or "buyer opportunity." Under 20 is frigid. Given the tight scale on this chart, conditions are not worsening considerably in the last few months.

Sales up, prices down? Existing Home Sales and Case Shiller Index

nospam@example.com (Mike Simonsen) — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 08:27:45 -0700

The February Existing Home Sales numbers were released yesterday by NAR. You probably saw the headlines. Home sales were, gasp, up!

Today the latest Case Shiller Index was released. In typical fashion, they're just getting around to telling us what happened in January. Guess what? It was ugly. Here, courtesy Fritz at TFS, are the 20 Case Shiller Markets vs. their market peaks.

	Peak Month	Peak CSI	Jan 08 CSI	Decline	Decline %
Atlanta	July 07	136.47	127.08	-9.39	-6.88%
Boston	Sept 05	182.48	162.59	-19.89	-10.90%
Charlotte	August 07	135.88	131.7	-4.18	-3.08%
Chicago	Septmber 06	168.6	156.47	-12.13	-7.19%
Cleveland	July 06	123.49	108.49	-15	-12.15%
Dallas	June 07	126.47	118.56	-7.91	-6.25%
Denver	August 06	140.27	128.98	-11.29	-8.05%
Detroit	December 05	127.05	100.17	-26.88	-21.16%
Los Angeles	September 06	273.94	224.41	-49.53	-18.08%
Las Vegas	August 06	234.78	186.05	-48.73	-20.76%
Miami	December 06	280.87	225.4	-55.47	-19.75%
Minneapolis	September 06	171.12	151.16	-19.96	-11.66%
New York	June 06	215.83	200.49	-15.34	-7.11%
Phoenix	June 06	227.42	180.06	-47.36	-20.82%
Portland	July 07	186.51	178.81	-7.7	-4.13%
San Diego	November 05	250.34	197.45	-52.89	-21.13%
Seattle	July 07	192.3	181.62	-10.68	-5.55%
San Francisco	May 06	218.37	183.81	-34.56	-15.83%
Tampa	July 06	238.09	194.64	-43.45	-18.25%
Washington DC	May 06	251.07	212.83	-38.24	-15.23%
10-C	June 06	226.29	196.06	-30.23	-13.36%
20-C	July 06	206.52	180.65	-25.87	-12.53%

Altos Links: For those of you with more than a passing interest in knowing thhe real estate data before these lagging indicators get published, Altos has two things for you:

Our monthly national real estate report publishes in real-time the housing price trends for all the markets covered by Case Shiller. CSI for January was published today. The Altos National Real Estate Report for February and March have already been published. April comes out next week.
Our full real estate data feeds are for institutions that make a living in the housing markets. You can now get data feeds for nearly 10,000 zip codes in over 40 metro markets around the country. We're publishing now an Altos National Composite price for the same markets as the Case Shiller 10. This is important because the derivatives trades are being done on the national index.

By the way, our data is highly correlated to the CSI. We'll be publishing correlations to the Existing Home Sales numbers very soon. Rock on.

Measuring the Decline in the Sacramento Housing Market

nospam@example.com (Mike Simonsen) — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 11:24:13 -0800

Jonathan Miller published the November Radar Logic RPX housing market report over the weekend. It's easy to spot that Sacramento is leading the nation down.

[aside: Radar Logic is cool. They measure Price Per Square Foot and try to do it across all properties, condos and single family homes, new and existing construction. No small task. The price per square foot approach is intended to measure value of the property regardless of the size of the property itself. In the real estate derivatives trading business, Radar is getting all the mindshare. Case Shiller is falling behind. more here.]

In the report just published for November, Sacramento saw a price-per-square-foot decline of 18%. Zowie. For those of you unfamiliar with California's central valley, this is an area dominated by lots of new construction, in huge projects, partly as Bay Area super-exurb. So the underlying economy in the Central Valley isn't nearly as dynamic as San Francisco, San Jose, or Los Angeles. Also much less dominated by the high-end, Sacramento is feeling the subprime fallout harder than most.

So Radar Logic is publishing for November. What are the real-time stats saying? Sacramento is not seeing any relief yet. Here's our price per square foot for Sacramento through February 1 2008.

Price Per Square Foot for single family homes in Sacramento, CA through Feb 1 2008. Notice the price is slightly higher than the Radar Logic number. That's because we track Condominiums separately and this is for the city of Sacramento specifically. The important factor is the direction.

Sacramento Housing Market Data Links:

Our free Sacramento Real Estate Research page

Here's a solid Sacramento Area Blog for more local flavor.

John Keith, Boston Real Estate Broker

nospam@example.com (Mike Simonsen) — Tue, 04 Dec 2007 07:50:14 -0800

John Keith

This post is written by our client John Keith a real estate broker in Boston, Massachusetts. We first met John when Scott sat next to him at the opening keynote of the Inman Connect conference in San Francisco this summer. At the time, we were just opening up our coverage in Boston and John jumped at the chance to work with us. We're glad he did.

John's blog is excellent. He's been very effective integrating the Altos market analytics information into his posts. So we asked him to write a post for us about how he uses the Altos Research services in his business, his blog, and with his clients.

John also generously included an endorsement, which I'm more than happy to include here. Note: I've done a tiny little bit of editing, and I added the images. Everythig else comes directly from John. Enjoy:

About John Keith

I am a Boston real estate agent. I have a blog devoted to Boston Real Estate, at bostonreb.com.

My blog has a main page with daily updates of news and information about the Boston real estate market. In addition, on this page, visitors can search through all the condos and single-family homes listed for sale in our local Multiple Listing Service. Also, visitors may click through to pages of information I have written that are of specific interest to buyers, sellers, investors, etc.

I signed-up as an Altos Research client several months ago. I thought it would be a great way to provide another much-needed service to my site's visitors. More importantly, I figured it would make me be seen as an "expert" on the Boston real estate market. Therefore, visitors would be more likely to inquire about using me as their real estate agent, increasing my business (and my revenue).

After being an Altos Research client for several months, I have seen very positive results and can say I'm very happy I have made the investment.

How I Leverage Altos Research in My Blog and Business
Now that I have access to them, I've tried a couple different ways of using the reports and graphs.

Right now, I have it set up so that there is one main graph on my blog's main page, for the city of Boston as a whole. It updates automatically, once each week's reports are finalized at Altos (every Monday evening).

I also have a link on my blog's main page directing visitors to another page where they can download any of the Altos weekly market reports (I subscribe to eleven Boston ZIP codes).

Banner for John Keith's blog BostonREB.com. Note the MLS Search, Market Reports, and New Developments dedicated pages. These are the three things that everyone wants to know about. The Market Reports, of course, come from Altos.

This past week, I added separate neighborhood-specific pages to my blog. [ed: here's The Fenway, for example.] These pages have blog entries devoted to each major Boston neighborhood. The idea is, visitors to my site will start on the main blog page, then click through to read more about specific neighborhoods.

I have an AltosChart on each of these neighborhood- specific pages, set up to show market data just for that neighborhood, by ZIP code. Probably some time in the near future, I'll be adding a link on these pages to each neighborhood's Altos market report (using each neighborhood's ZIP code).

I'm also about to set up an MLS search, preset by neighborhood, showing just listings in that specific neighborhood.

I expect this to have great results. The majority of visitors will continue to begin their visit on my main page, but then they will want to visit the page focused on just their neighborhood(s) of interest. By having the MLS search and AltosCharts on each neighborhood's page, I'm providing visitors with useful information.

How Strong the Call-To-Action?
It's an open question as to how much information and data to provide to everyone - whether or not to have the Altos Research reports available to everyone, or whether I should force visitors to contact me for access to the reports (a "call to action", it's called).

Certainly, by making people contact me, I'm creating a two-way relationship - it encourages communication, which, hopefully, would lead to new business.

However, I also believe in making as much information as possible available to as many people as possible.

Most people visit my website multiple times, over a period of days, weeks, and/or months prior to contacting me to be their real estate agent. They already know me quite well from my blog, before they make an inquiry. So, there may be little to lose by having the reports readily available to the casual visitor.

Each week, I upload all the updated reports (by neighborhood and city-wide) to my servers. I receive reports for eleven ZIP codes, which covers the majority of the "downtown Boston" market.

There are actually 29 ZIP codes in the city of Boston, and I've considered getting reports for each of them. I would like to be "complete", even though I don't handle real estate sales in the other neighborhoods. This would increase traffic to my site, which would increase my exposure to potential clients and make me seen as the expert in ALL of Boston.

Measuring My Return on Investment
I think the cost of the reports is easily justified. First, I enjoy reading the reports, myself. It presents data in ways I don't collect, myself. As well, it provides useful information to my existing clients. And, it provides useful information to potential clients.

Again, it makes me become known as an "expert" in Boston real estate - as the primary source for data and information on the Boston real estate market.

As of now, only a couple of other Boston real estate agents offer the Altos Research reports, which is fine by me, but I expect more agents to begin offering the reports to clients, which will increase competition. I'm glad I'm doing it, first.

On Wildfires, Black Swans, and Home Prices.

nospam@example.com (Mike Simonsen) — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 10:38:12 -0700

A paper in the Journal of Emergency Management came across my desk today. Measuring the Efficacy of a Wildfire Education Program in Colorado Springs

Timely, considering the state of Southern California right now and of Tahoe earlier this summer.

The program sounds like a fascinating way to increase awareness of the fire risk (awareness being the key factor in reducing the controllable variables). Preparation for disasters like this is of course subject to the Black Swan effect:

...most people are uncomfortable making risk estimates of uncertain events such as wild fires... They may think, "There has never been a wildfire where I live, so it is very unlikely that there will be one in the future."

So what can public policy do to motivate people to better manage their exposure? In Colorado Springs, they evaluated every parcel, 35,000 of them, and gave each a rating. Now the city can tell me I have a very-high-risk property and get me thinking about trimming the pine boughs back from my cedar-shingle roof. Then they publish that information. When I go to buy a home in the area, I can factor that into my purchase. That's positive.

But is it effective? And how do we measure changes in risk perceptions? The authors of the paper took a novel approach.

Rather than simply measuring changes in risk perceptions, we examine the effect of the program on the housing market. This provides a more complete picture of how the CSFD approach to education affects homeowner attitudes toward wildfire risk.

A market-based approach. Nice. Incent homeowners to fix the easy stuff that makes up most of the wildfire risk. Very cool.

And the results?

Perhaps the most striking result is that pre-assessment home prices and wildfire risk were positively correlated. In other words, houses with higher wildfire risk also had higher sales prices. The reason for this is [otherwise desirable features also increase fire risk]...building on a ridge may increase the wildfire risk, it also provides better views.

In contrast, post-assessment there is no such correlation. Post-assessment wood roofs and wood siding now have a negative impact on price. As a result, people are migrating to safer building materials.

Good stuff. Too bad it's a lesson a bit too late for the disasters this week. We'll keep an eye on the data to see if we can discern any immediate impact on home prices in San Diego from the fires. Will report back soon.

Damned Lies and Median Home Prices

nospam@example.com (Mike Simonsen) — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 07:39:17 -0700

The bubble is bursting all around us and the National Association of Realtors comes out with a report that San Francisco Bay Area median home prices increased by 13% in the second quarter. Nooooo, can it be? If you can't trust NAR, who can you trust?

Stephen Bedikian of RealIQ has a nice piece today over at Inman News sorting through the confusion. He cites some Altos numbers to help make sense of the turmoil. Stephen concludes:

So what actually happened? Sales transactions increased with a greater proportion on the high end versus the previous quarter. There appears to have been little actual appreciation as evidenced by the Case Shiller and OFHEO numbers, while inventory increased and prices of many listed properties were reduced. So next time you read that median house prices have increased in your area, don't celebrate prematurely. Conduct more research before you reach a conclusion about market conditions in your area.

In addition to Stephen's suggestion of diversifying your stats, I'll add that if you're not looking local, you're not looking anywhere. The Bay Area market? Are you kidding? This spring, you could indeed watch a few key markets, like Palo Alto and up the Peninsula stay strong. But look even a few miles inland, say Antioch, and the carnage was everywhere.

To be fair to NAR, we reported the same trends for some of those parts of the Bay Area in February, March, and April. We also noted that by May, the Spring price growth had already begun to recede. (Notably correlated, by the way, with the widening spreads on jumbo mortgages that started at that time. Surprise! The high-end starts to fade when fat mortgages get more expensive.) So here we are five months later and NAR is telling you that San Francisco had a strong spring. Thanks guys.

[ps. sorry about the long hiatus from the blogosphere. Hope you've been enjoying Scott's posts on real estate e-marketing tactics. Our plan is to intersperse both topics together. Thanks to Stephen for getting me off my ass and posting. I like his work, we'll have to do more together in the future.]

Yahoo! Article - "Home Sales Hit Slump"

nospam@example.com (Scott Sambucci) — Mon, 27 Aug 2007 08:12:48 -0700

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070827/economy.html?.v=13

Is the market doing badly?Â Well, I guess the correct answer is:

It depends. . .

Here's the Altos 90-day rolling average for Median Home Prices by Price QUARTILE for various cities across the US since the Spring.

Miami, FL

Phoenix, AZ:

Scottsdale, AZ

Portland, OR

Austin, TX

Â
Palo Alto, CA

Washington DC:

Super Cool Bay Area Real Estate Market Mashup

nospam@example.com (Mike Simonsen) — Tue, 31 Jul 2007 08:50:56 -0700

Client, friend, and indefatigable blogger Kevin Boer has a really slick map mashup of our AltosCharts housing price charts for the Bay Area, using our price quartile data. Kevin uses Zeesource and the result is prettier than our own map mashup (though ours covers all our markets and has a zoom-in-to-the-zip-codes feature.)

AltosCharts map mashup by Kevin Boer at 3OceansRealEstate.com

Our AltosCharts service is up for the Most Innovative Technology award at the Inman Connect conference this week. It's partners like Kevin that really illustrate the power of using market analytics to inform. We're proud to count him as a client. I'm not sure how the winners are selected for these awards, but maybe fans of Kevin's work will stuff the ballot box for us.

And while I'm patting myself on the back, here are a couple of other Altos clients that use AltosCharts really well to bring value to their readers, and boost their own marketing return:

The Harper Team in the East Bay

Pat Kapowich in Sunnyvale

SeattleHome.com

(BTW - I don't mean to exclude any other clients and your sites. There are too many to mention. Feel free to add your site to the comments of this blog if you want to show off your AltosCharts work. I'll work up a post highlighting other sites soon.)