About Altos Research Corp.Altos Research is the premier source for real-time real estate research. Our real estate data and local real estate reports are used by financial firms, investors, and thousands of real estate professionals around the country. This blog is primarily authored by Mike Simonsen, co-founder and CEO of Altos Research. Other ways to be in touch: Chat with us right now! |
Tuesday, August 5. 2008Report: National Home Prices Down By 0.8% in JulyOur latest National Housing Market Report is out. This one examines data through end of July 2008. You can download the PDF here.
Friday, August 1. 2008The Best and Worst Performing Zip Codes Around the CountryAltos scores the big spread in BusinessWeek today! And you know what? We found some very interesting trends. Aside from poor Las Vegas, we are able to find some healthy pricing trends in every metro we sampled. What do the up markets have in common? Well, almost without exception, they're the nice parts of town. The biggest down zip codes? Again almost without exception, the hardest hit markets are the cheapest parts of town. The phenomenon is working like this: There are a few folks who are well financed, and they for the first time in years, get to buy in the best neighborhoods without a ton of competition. Mortgages are still historically cheap, if in fact you can get one. While at the low end, no one can get financing, and of course those with the craziest mortgages are now selling or foreclosing. The mayhem starts at the bottom. Check out the full article. Fascinating reading.
Posted by Mike Simonsen
in Altos Research, House Prices, press coverage, Real Estate Data
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09:07
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Monday, July 21. 2008Announcing AltosXplorer: Live access to the dataOver the past couple of years, we've built our client base with realtors and investors, buyers and sellers, with appraisers and traders, with planners and researchers. During that time, our products for those folks have taken the form of either detailed analytical reports or simply raw data. Either we do all the analytical work, or you do it. More and more though, we found that there is a big group of people who need an easy way to solve more unique problems than we can possibly address in our pre-designed local reports, but these folks have neither the time nor the experience to sift through the mountains of real estate data on their own. We realized we needed a product that lets our clients easily query the vast Altos Research database to get the specific answers they need, and use the output in any number of different ways. Thus AltosXplorer was born. AltosXplorer for live access to the mega-huge Altos Research real-time real estate data. AltosXplorer is for you if you've ever looked at our report products and said, "I don't need just one city, I need to be able to investigate any stat for any zip in the whole area (region, state, country)." Think about the investor who has opportunities that may come up anywhere in Florida, and wants to quickly compare two markets when a new deal arrives. Or consider an appraiser who works all over Chicagoland. Any given day he needs to illustrate just a couple of key measures in a neighborhood to augment the rest of the data in his report. For our Realtor clients, AltosXplorer is a lot of fun too. Previously, in order to use our AltosCharts you needed to formulate a long URL to get the right chart. With AltosXplorer, you build the chart you want with just a few clicks and then click, copy and paste! (See Kris Berg's first foray for the perfect example of how AltosXplorer was intended for our Pro clients.) Can you tell we're giddy around here? I could go on and on but I'll wrap in a single (albeit multi-claused) sentence: AltosXplorer is a rich internet application that enables you to do your own analysis, create your own trend AltosCharts, on our full database, and export the data to your own analysis in just a few clicks. Learn more here. Try it out here. Enjoy.
Posted by Mike Simonsen
in Altos Research, clients, news, Real Estate Data, Technology, Trend Charts
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16:53
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Friday, July 11. 2008Stockton: where 3 of 4 homes are on path to foreclosure.Oh my. ![]() Single family home prices in Stockton, CA. Real estate data as of July 4 2008.
Three of four homes for sale in Stockton are in- or on the path to- foreclosure.
Posted by Mike Simonsen
in California real estate, Housing Bubble, Real Estate Data, Trend Charts
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09:46
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Monday, July 7. 2008National Real Estate Prices Down 0.5% in JuneWe released our National Real Estate Report today. Here's the press release.
Monday, June 30. 2008Rock On ChicagoYesterday I wrote about Chicago's dubious distinction as the most socially regulated city in the US. I argue that trend does not bode well for the creative class, the city's future prosperity and ultimately its real estate values over the long haul. However today I came across a glowing article on Chicago in Fast Company, calling it "City of the Year". Indeed it's a city I love, so let's look at the positives. Fast Company lauds some of the city's social restrictions as forward thinking "Greening" efforts. (Ironically they also posit that the city's position as anchor of 20th century architecture happened here because there was "no one to tell [the developers] to do it differently.") Construction Booms Most of what FC is happy about though derives from, Chicago's marvelous growth spurt. The city is the fastest-growing non-Sun Belt city in the US. The economy is growing faster than New York or LA. Immigration remains strong from all over the world. The Chicago Spire With all this development, it's worth a look to see how the downtown Chicago condo market is holding up. Here's a handful of zip codes: ![]() Price trends for condominiums in Chicago's West Loop and Near North neighborhoods. Data as of June 27 2008 Let's look at demand rates also. ![]() Days on Market trends for select zip codes in Chicago. Condo data as of June 27 2008 Like much of the country, the most desirable parts of town have (those with the higher prices already) show reasonably consistent demand and stable prices. This is not the case as you leave the hot neighborhoods. So what's in store for the City? Construction, investment, and immigration warm my heart. Laws to dictate my diet chill me to the bone. The good news is that buildings last a long time. Bad laws can be as ephemeral as the foie gras they're restricting. Let's call this one a net positive. Rock on Chicago. Link: Chicago Real Estate Data Saturday, June 14. 2008Home Prices in Oakland vs. BerkeleyChecking out Andy Kaufman's blog this morning, I couldn't help but noticing the contrasting AltosCharts he's showing for Oakland and Berkeley California. Oakland of course is the bigger city, but these next-door-neighbors share some parts that are virtually indistinguishable from each other. There are some spectacular parts of Oakland and sketchy parts of Berkeley and vise versa. But look at the home price trends over the last year. ![]() Real estate prices in Oakland and Berkeley, California as of mid-June 2008. Data for single family homes. Likewise look at the trends in inventory levels for the same to cities. ![]() Real estate inventory levels of homes for sale in Oakland and Berkeley, California. Data for single family homes through mid-June 2008 You couldn't have a clearer picture of the real estate pricing phenomenon we're seeing all over the country. It works like this:
Actually, I'm sure we could dig through the zip code level data in Oakland and illustrate a similar phenomenon within the cities themselves. But this particular story jumped out at me this morning, so that's what gets covered. Altos Links: Oakland real estate data, Berkeley Real Estate Data Friday, June 13. 2008Hedge your real estate risk. For real this time!The other day, I highlighted the announcement from Bob Shiller's MacroMarkets to list exchange traded funds on the housing market. I've now had a chance to investigate more deeply and I'm giddy like a schoolgirl. (Albeit an incredibly geeky schoolgirl, but giddy nonetheless.) First, some foundation as to why this matters. In all businesses you have risks you can control and costs you can't: food, energy, interest rates, etc. For those costs, it makes sense to hedge. Successful jet fuel hedges are a big reason Southwest Airlines is the strongest in the country. Consumer products (e.g. cheaper airline tickets, wacky mortgages) get created on the foundation of these tools. (i.e. derivatives are a good thing.) Speculators can also participate - they add potential return to their portfolio where a hedger removes risk. Speculators create liquidity for the hedgers. (i.e. speculators are a good thing.) Financial derivatives, futures, options, swaps, etc. exist in nearly every asset class to solve these problems for people. Likewise, lots of people and companies have real estate "exposure". This is a $21 trillion asset class people. You should be able to hedge. Especially now, people realize housing prices don't always go up. But before 2006, there were no financial products that let you hedge your real estate risk. And the only way to speculate was to buy investment property. In 2006, MacroMarkets introduced, on the Chicago Merc, housing derivatives. Unfortunately it turned out that there were practical limitations on the housing futures that prevented nearly all potential "end-users" from participating. (The big banks could trade amongst themselves, but how fun is that?) Namely, you need big capital requirements, special trading accounts, most of the time you need a broker-dealer on the other side of your trade, and the payoff is not significantly leveraged. Perhaps I was a bit harsh to characterize MacroMarkets as having "dropped the ball" but, as of today, mere mortals basically still can't hedge their real estate risk. So how do you eliminate these hurdles? Enter Exchange Traded Funds ETFs are securities that trade like stocks on stock exchanges. You can play the oil price trends or diversified stock market positions simply buy buying a single "stock". Here's how MacroMarkets' new ETFs ("MacroShares" as they call them) work for the housing market:
Exercise some caution however, because there are nuances of how these things will behave. Namely:
But is the Case Shiller Index Useful? The remaining challenges for these products are oriented around the data. It's easy to bitch about the Case Shiller Index: doesn't include condos, or new construction, or flips, etc., etc., etc. Add in local market peculiarities and a lot of people wonder if the CSI actually measures the housing market. My take on this argument is that Case-Shiller is not useful for making a home purchase decision. But that doesn't preclude its usefulness in financial instruments. The fact is that the CSI 10-City Composite peaked in June 2006, and that's widely regarded as the national turning point for this housing market cycle. The classic example of the localness problem came when Brad Inman asked Bob Shiller on stage and his conference in Miami, "So let's say I bought a $2 million home in Sausalito in 2005. How would I hedge that?" Ill distill Shiller's 10-minute-Yale-finance-prof reply into two words for you: "You can't." With Given that these new securities are based on the CSI 10-City Composite, which is down strong in the last 12 months, they're not going to be helpful to hedge in Sausalito, which is doing just fine, thank you. But if you're a reasonably diversified investor, brokerage, lender, builder, supplier, or yes, even if you're a speculator, this is a great way to measure US housing broadly. Given success in the market, there's no reason why they can't list regional funds too at some point in the future, to get a little closer to home. Finally, of course, the backward-looking nature of all typical housing market data presents opportunities for clients of the Altos real-time real estate data. Rock on. This is big, folks. Huge. I don't imagine that this innovation is going to save anyone from foreclosure. But we're looking at the only effective way to manage your real estate assets without physically selling off properties. Think about that. Won't that be amazingly useful? Look for these to get listed sometime in Q3 or Q4 2008. You can be sure that we'll be watching, and of course publishing data to help you trade. Wednesday, June 11. 2008Trade the Housing Market like StocksMacroMarkets today announced that they'll be issuing New York Stock Exchange-traded securities for investors to play the US Housing Market. From the press release:
Looks to me like an ETF, which would be ideal for lowering the transaction costs and the capital requirements that have been dogging the commodities-exchange traded securities. ETFs, remember are exchange traded funds so you can invest pretty directly in an underlying asset class. In oil, for example, you can trade with the ticker symbol USO traded on the Amex.
In the couple years since launching the Chicago Merc-traded housing futures based on the S&P/Case Shiller Index, MacroMarkets is widely acknowledged to have dropped the ball. The traded volume on these markets is tiny and was restricted by steep license fees that MacroMarkets tried to extract from the Street. This winter, MacroMarkets sold to S&P the master license of the Index and droped the license fees. That was Step One. Step Two is to get products into the hands of the people who can use them. It looks like MacroMarkets is focusing on Step Two. Let's hope they learned their lesson and this product gets the volume it deserves.
While we have yet to see these securities trade on the NYSE, they're based on the Case Shiller 10-City Composite, which is good news for Altos (and our customers). We publish the Altos 10-City Composite which, whattya know, follows the same 10 cities. ![]() Altos Research 10-City Composite and 25-City Composite. US Residential Real Estate prices as of June 8 2008.
Our Real Estate Derivatives weekly report is now available to subscribers who want to know where these indexes are heading with a 90-day lead. Beyond just pricing, the reports dive into all the detail real estate data: supply and demand levels, turnover, etc. If you're interested, contact us.
Meanwhile, I'm keeping my fingers crossed to see some trading volume.
Posted by Mike Simonsen
in Case Shiller, Real Estate Data, Real Estate Derivatives, Real Estate Report
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10:19
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Tuesday, June 10. 2008June 2008 National Real Estate Report ReleasedWe released the latest National Real Estate Report today. You can download it here [PDF]. The data inspects 26 metro markets around the country and tracks home prices, inventory and days on market. We also track the Altos 10-City Composite for a National perspective on the trends. Here's the press release:
Sunday, June 8. 2008Check out this chart of inventory in San JoseWe're have an internal game here at Altos - Guess the San Jose Market Bottom. It's quite clear that you can't predict the market bottom by looking at the price chart alone, but what else should you look at? Inventory provides a clue. Check this out: ![]() Single family homes for sale in San Jose. Data from January 2005 through June 2008. Note that in 2007, the typical summer-seasonal inventory plateau burst. The question is, Is that the first inkling of a summer plateau this year? If inventory levels flatten out this sumer then maybe, just maybe, the worst of the carnage would be over. That inventory could work its way out over the next couple years. What do you think? Is the recession going to make this chart jump even higher this fall? Here's where you can keep an eye on the live San Jose real estate data. Tuesday, May 27. 2008Case Shiller - Surprise! Home Prices dropped a few months agoMacroMarkets released the monthly Case Shiller Index today. Case Shiller tracks repeat sales of single family homes. Like most real estate data (except ours of course) the Case Shiller lags the actual market by several months. This is data for March 2008.
![]() Nationally we saw a less-steep price decline in the last few months than we did at the beginning of the year. As a bonus, let's look at the Denver chart. The Denver metro actually defied the national carnage until October of last year. Case Shiller picked that up too and you can see that Denver is the smallest of the declines in the sample. We've actually seen a small uptick in Denver pricing this spring. (Don't be fooled by the scale on this chart. With the tight scale, it looks like a rocket, but it's only a few thousand dollars difference.) ![]() Home price trends in the Denver metro market for the 12 months ending May 2008. The tight scale on this chart makes it look stronger than it is, but at least it's not falling through the floor. See also:
Posted by Mike Simonsen
in Case Shiller, Housing Market, Real Estate Data, real estate research
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08:01
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Tuesday, May 6. 2008Two Sites Digging the DataTwo very cool announcements today from Friends of Altos - both are great examples of real estate data helping people make better decisions in this crazy housing market. I just love this kind of innovation. Krunching.com First up is Krunching.com: These guys built an investor-focused site with tons of data about properties for sale, investor metrics, property analysis. You can tell it was built by real estate investors answering their own property analysis questions. The site is super-fast and really pretty (in a web 2.0 sense.) If you're an investor, Krunching is going to be a powerful tool for you. They're taking a freemium business model - they give away a bunch of great data for free and their power users sign up for paid services. They've built Altos local real estate data and analysis into their premium services, so if you don't buy from us, you can get our data in your Krunching subscriptions. My only complaint is that they've used an OFHEO regional chart on their investment summary page. The feds are telling us what happened to home prices in September. Thanks guys. (Hey Brian - you need an AltosChart on that page! Get with the program!) Krunching is only available in California right now, but it's a great start for a national product. Great job guys. Homethinking Mortgage Also launched today is a really cool mortgage market analysis product from longtime Altos partner Homethinking.com. I get questions every day from people trying to understand the scope of the mortgage crisis. The Homethinking guys have taken a huge pile of mortgage data and presented it in a super-clean, very powerful visual interface. Want to know how much exposure your town has to sub-prime loans? Homethinking will tell you. Want to know what percent of mortgage applicants are rejected? Check it out. Huge amounts of information in here. Again, thanks to the feds, this data is a year old. Still, it's better information than the world had access to yesterday. So kudos to Niki and team at Homethinking. Looks fantastic. And it comes in cool embeddable widgets!
Posted by Mike Simonsen
in clients, Investment conditions, Mortgage and Lending, Real Estate Data
at
07:55
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Thursday, May 1. 2008Fastest home sales in BostonWe did this fun infographic for the Boston Globe's spring real estate section last week.
What we found mirrors much of the rest of the country: the close in, nice neighborhoods are where the demand is. Go further out and time-to-sell a home climbs into the many months range. Click on any city name for the real estate report for that town. |