Housing Market Projections

Yesterday I wrote about Chicago's dubious distinction as the most socially regulated city in the US. I argue that trend does not bode well for the creative class, the city's future prosperity and ultimately its real estate values over the long haul. However today I came across a glowing article on Chicago in Fast Company, calling it "City of the Year". Indeed it's a city I love, so let's look at the positives.

Fast Company lauds some of the city's social restrictions as forward thinking "Greening" efforts. (Ironically they also posit that the city's position as anchor of 20th century architecture happened here because there was "no one to tell [the developers] to do it differently.")

Construction Booms
Most of what FC is happy about though derives from, Chicago's marvelous growth spurt. The city is the fastest-growing non-Sun Belt city in the US. The economy is growing faster than New York or LA. Immigration remains strong from all over the world.

While highrise condo development has slowed from it's frenzied pace a few years ago, I'm still excited about the Chicago's recent construction boom. The famed skyline is remains one of the most moving in the world. And its development continues. (I highly recommend the Chicago Architecture Foundation's boat tour if you have 90 minutes to spare while you're in town.) Between the 150-story Chicago Spire and the new Trump tower (who let him in there?) the city will remain on the forefront of skyscraper architecture.

With all this development, it's worth a look to see how the downtown Chicago condo market is holding up. Here's a handful of zip codes:


Let's look at demand rates also.


Like much of the country, the most desirable parts of town have (those with the higher prices already) show reasonably consistent demand and stable prices. This is not the case as you leave the hot neighborhoods.

So what's in store for the City? Construction, investment, and immigration warm my heart. Laws to dictate my diet chill me to the bone. The good news is that buildings last a long time. Bad laws can be as ephemeral as the foie gras they're restricting. Let's call this one a net positive.

Rock on Chicago.

Link: Chicago Real Estate Data

Checking out Andy Kaufman's blog this morning, I couldn't help but noticing the contrasting AltosCharts he's showing for Oakland and Berkeley California.

Oakland of course is the bigger city, but these next-door-neighbors share some parts that are virtually indistinguishable from each other. There are some spectacular parts of Oakland and sketchy parts of Berkeley and vise versa. But look at the home price trends over the last year.

Likewise look at the trends in inventory levels for the same to cities.

You couldn't have a clearer picture of the real estate pricing phenomenon we're seeing all over the country. It works like this:

• Demand is off everywhere and everyone knows it.
• So if you're a home buyer in the East Bay with good cash and good credit, you get your pick. In this case, Berkeley has generally better schools, more cachet, etc., so the buyers go there first.
• There's enough demand to keep the market afloat.
• If you don't have good cash and good credit, you get nothing. There is literally no spillover demand for Oakland.
• A few years ago, a home buyer might look to the nicer neighborhoods in Oakland for additional inventory or a lesser school-premium price. Not the case any more.

Actually, I'm sure we could dig through the zip code level data in Oakland and illustrate a similar phenomenon within the cities themselves. But this particular story jumped out at me this morning, so that's what gets covered.

Altos Links: Oakland real estate data, Berkeley Real Estate Data

The other day, I highlighted the announcement from Bob Shiller's MacroMarkets to list exchange traded funds on the housing market. I've now had a chance to investigate more deeply and I'm giddy like a schoolgirl. (Albeit an incredibly geeky schoolgirl, but giddy nonetheless.)

First, some foundation as to why this matters.

In all businesses you have risks you can control and costs you can't: food, energy, interest rates, etc. For those costs, it makes sense to hedge. Successful jet fuel hedges are a big reason Southwest Airlines is the strongest in the country. Consumer products (e.g. cheaper airline tickets, wacky mortgages) get created on the foundation of these tools. (i.e. derivatives are a good thing.) Speculators can also participate - they add potential return to their portfolio where a hedger removes risk. Speculators create liquidity for the hedgers. (i.e. speculators are a good thing.) Financial derivatives, futures, options, swaps, etc. exist in nearly every asset class to solve these problems for people.

Likewise, lots of people and companies have real estate "exposure". This is a $21 trillion asset class people. You should be able to hedge. Especially now, people realize housing prices don't always go up. But before 2006, there were no financial products that let you hedge your real estate risk. And the only way to speculate was to buy investment property.

In 2006, MacroMarkets introduced, on the Chicago Merc, housing derivatives. Unfortunately it turned out that there were practical limitations on the housing futures that prevented nearly all potential "end-users" from participating. (The big banks could trade amongst themselves, but how fun is that?) Namely, you need big capital requirements, special trading accounts, most of the time you need a broker-dealer on the other side of your trade, and the payoff is not significantly leveraged. Perhaps I was a bit harsh to characterize MacroMarkets as having "dropped the ball" but, as of today, mere mortals basically still can't hedge their real estate risk. So how do you eliminate these hurdles?

Enter Exchange Traded Funds

ETFs are securities that trade like stocks on stock exchanges. You can play the oil price trends or diversified stock market positions simply buy buying a single "stock".

Here's how MacroMarkets' new ETFs ("MacroShares" as they call them) work for the housing market:

• The shares will list on the NYSE Arca. You can buy them from any brokerage account, like you would any stock.
• They're designed to follow the Case Shiller Index - specifically the CSI 10-City Composite, the national index. more on the implications of this below.
• The shares are issued in pairs: ticker symbol NYSE:UMM goes up when housing prices go up, NYSE:DMM goes up when housing prices go down.
• Like any stock, there's a market specialist so you always have price liquidity. You don't need to line up Goldman or Merril to take the other side of your bet.
• The shares have a par value of $25/share so when the market is heavily bearish the DMMs will trade at a premium to the $25.
• They have a 10-year horizon so you can play the longer term cycles of the housing market.
• The underlying assets get parked in short term US Treasuries, so the securities actually return a quarterly dividend.
• So the very easy trade is if you're bearish, simply buy the DMMs. Think you're seeing the bottom? Buy the UMMs. Ahh... simplicity.

Exercise some caution however, because there are nuances of how these things will behave. Namely:

• They trade in pairs that offset each other. This means if home prices double, the DMMs will go to zero and the security closes out. This happened in MacroMarkets oil MacroShares this year. AMEX:UCR and AMEX:DCR. (Those securities have market values in the billions now, so people are obviously adopting them as useful instruments.)
• That means also that the upside is limited to a 100% move. You can improve your return with margin leverage like any stock.
• As these things approach close (because of A. time or B.100% market moves) the pricing will exhibit optionality. They'll behave less like the market and more like an option.
  

But is the Case Shiller Index Useful?

The remaining challenges for these products are oriented around the data. It's easy to bitch about the Case Shiller Index: doesn't include condos, or new construction, or flips, etc., etc., etc. Add in local market peculiarities and a lot of people wonder if the CSI actually measures the housing market.

My take on this argument is that Case-Shiller is not useful for making a home purchase decision. But that doesn't preclude its usefulness in financial instruments. The fact is that the CSI 10-City Composite peaked in June 2006, and that's widely regarded as the national turning point for this housing market cycle.

The classic example of the localness problem came when Brad Inman asked Bob Shiller on stage and his conference in Miami, "So let's say I bought a $2 million home in Sausalito in 2005. How would I hedge that?" Ill distill Shiller's 10-minute-Yale-finance-prof reply into two words for you: "You can't."

With Given that these new securities are based on the CSI 10-City Composite, which is down strong in the last 12 months, they're not going to be helpful to hedge in Sausalito, which is doing just fine, thank you.

But if you're a reasonably diversified investor, brokerage, lender, builder, supplier, or yes, even if you're a speculator, this is a great way to measure US housing broadly. Given success in the market, there's no reason why they can't list regional funds too at some point in the future, to get a little closer to home.

Finally, of course, the backward-looking nature of all typical housing market data presents opportunities for clients of the Altos real-time real estate data. Rock on.

This is big, folks. Huge.

I don't imagine that this innovation is going to save anyone from foreclosure. But we're looking at the only effective way to manage your real estate assets without physically selling off properties. Think about that. Won't that be amazingly useful?

Look for these to get listed sometime in Q3 or Q4 2008. You can be sure that we'll be watching, and of course publishing data to help you trade.

More coverage: Here, here, and here.

Jonathan Miller published the November Radar Logic RPX housing market report over the weekend. It's easy to spot that Sacramento is leading the nation down.

[aside: Radar Logic is cool. They measure Price Per Square Foot and try to do it across all properties, condos and single family homes, new and existing construction. No small task. The price per square foot approach is intended to measure value of the property regardless of the size of the property itself. In the real estate derivatives trading business, Radar is getting all the mindshare. Case Shiller is falling behind. more here.]

In the report just published for November, Sacramento saw a price-per-square-foot decline of 18%. Zowie. For those of you unfamiliar with California's central valley, this is an area dominated by lots of new construction, in huge projects, partly as Bay Area super-exurb. So the underlying economy in the Central Valley isn't nearly as dynamic as San Francisco, San Jose, or Los Angeles. Also much less dominated by the high-end, Sacramento is feeling the subprime fallout harder than most.

So Radar Logic is publishing for November. What are the real-time stats saying? Sacramento is not seeing any relief yet. Here's our price per square foot for Sacramento through February 1 2008.

Sacramento Housing Market Data Links:

Our free Sacramento Real Estate Research page

Here's a solid Sacramento Area Blog for more local flavor.

Some posts just write themselves.

Can't. Help. It. Must. Write. More.

Ugly? You betcha. Do these tell the whole story? Not a chance. In Silicon Valley, San Jose is the dominant market, of course. San Jose is a diverse community, with lots of sub-prime and other crazy loans in the past few years. But also some really great neighborhoods with prosperous, fully employed folks. Lots of big, but not-risky loans too. Here's how the market in a desirable part of town, Willow Glen, is holding up. I've done the price chart in Quartiles so you can see the trends at each price point in the market.

Link: San Jose Housing Market.

For the NAR conference this month I was a bit tardy in posting my travel schedule, and I missed some connections there as a result. So here's a heads-up for my conference travel schedule in January and February.

January 8-11 New York: Inman Connect conference. Brad Inman always throws a grand shindig. I make connections, friends, and new clients at every Inman conference. My meeting schedule is filling up fast, but I still have some time on Thursday and Friday. Give me a buzz and we'll get together. Scott will also be in attendance so we should have good coverage meeting old friends and new.

February 5-8 New York: O'Reilly Money:Tech conference. This conference is all about hacking Wall Street with new data and tools. It promises to be one of a kind. Love it. I'll be presenting on real-time real estate market analytics, plus our data that leads the Case Shiller and Radar Logic housing futures markets. We'll be demonstrating some never-before-public data goodies.

Lots of big shots presenting at Money:Tech too. Jim Cramer, Barry Ritholtz, Henry Blodgett, Bill Tancer, and more. Check it out.

As always, these trips are about meeting clients, partners, and readers. email mike at this url.com to get in touch.

When we started this company, one of the things we envisioned was creating a National Housing Market Report -- one that would be a right-now alternative to the laggard OFHEO reports and even the Case Shiller releases. Well today is the day, folks. The Altos Research Real IQ National Housing Market Report is here!

In it we look at 20 major metro markets, publish some key stats about pricing and supply and demand trends and we draw some conclusions about what's happening out there. The U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) covered in the report include: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington, DC.

We're working in conjunction with Stephen Bedekian from Real IQ. Stephen is an industry leader, writer, and consultant and he helped bring this project together. This being the first issue, it took us a few extra days of editing. In future months, we'll be aiming to publish the report just a few days after month's end.

The latest version of the report is available for download on our financial institutions page. Or you can download the PDF here.

The Press Release headline this month isn't any shocking news - Surprise! Prices are still under pressure! But we're laying the foundation here to be the first to identify the eventual bottom of the market. From the press release:

REPORT: HOUSING PRICES
CONTINUE DECLINE IN NOVEMBER

Time-on-Market
Increased as Housing Market Demand Falls Faster than Supply

MOUNTAIN VIEW, CA
- December 13, 2007 – The listing prices on properties in 18 of 20 major markets across the U.S. fell during the month of November. San Diego experienced the steepest decline with listing prices falling 5.8 percent as the recent wildfires exacted a toll on demand. This information was presented in the newly-launched Real-Time National Housing Market Report*, published by Altos Research, the premier source for real-time, real-estate market research and Real IQ™, a market analysis consultancy.

The Real-Time National Housing Market Report is based on an analysis of data from over one million properties currently listed for sale in 20 metropolitan markets across the country and represents the most timely source of housing market data on current market activity.

“Real estate information tends to be highly latent and subject to a lot of revisions,” said Michael Simonsen CEO and co-founder of Altos Research. “It takes several months before the S&P/Case Shiller Index or the
OFHEO data is released for a given month. When you're making investment decisions or trading derivatives these lag times are simply killers.”

Another key trend noted in the new report was an increase in the time-on-market duration for homes on sale in virtually all markets. Miami experienced the longest time-on-market span with an average days-on-market of 137 in November. Minneapolis had the second highest average days-on-market at 125.

Listed property inventory levels displayed seasonal declines in many markets with the exception of Las Vegas where for-sale property listings increased 6.6% over the past three month. “While inventory levels declined in most major markets, the decline in supply could not keep pace with the rapid fall in demand,” said Stephen Bedikian, partner and research director for Real IQ. “We expect time-on-market will continue to lengthen and apply pressure on homeowner pricing decisions until buyers regain confidence and demand levels off. So far that point is not in sight.”

*The first report was published December 7, 2007 and will be released every month. Report downloads are available from Altos Research.

If you've watched the Case Shiller Index numbers this year, you might have noticed that Denver, Colorado is the lone market still registering positive housing price gains for 2007. (BTW: if you prefer Uncle Sam's OFHEO numbers, you'll have just this week discovered that the US housing market is under pressure.)

We've been watching Denver too, because that a market that's been bucking the trend. We recently opened our subscription service for real estate professionals in Denver, as well as home buyers and sellers there.

Here's what the median price looks like for the Denver MSA, in a rolling average over the past several months.

You can see from the chart, home prices in the Denver area have so far missed the bursting that's hitting most of the rest of the country. Up just fractionally, but steadily this year.

Why the resilience? A couple reasons probably: 1) Colorado real estate didn't have as much upside in the last few years to begin with. 2) The economy and investment levels are still strong. 3) Denver is just a little bit of a laggard economically behind the coastal cities. That implies the burst simply hasn't hit Denver yet.

Looking at the rolling average smooths out weekly noise, so the trend is easier to see. But using a three month rolling average, it'll lag the real-time market a bit. The next chart is the weekly sample.

In this image we're just starting to see the weeklies break below the 90-day rolling average. Too early to make a big bet, perhaps, but a noticeable change nonetheless.

Plus, if you look at the city of Denver the change is much more pronounced. Zowie! That's quite a drop. (caveat: don't discount the seasonal impact that's surely happening in some capacity here.)

Keep an eye on Denver. I'll be fascinated to see if that town is able to demonstrate real staying power, or if it's just a few months behind.

Links:

Free research for the Denver housing market

Free research for the Aurora housing market

etc.

Here's a couple of Altos Research mentions in the Seattle Post Intelligencer last week.

Altos client and blogger Sandy Kaduce is a contributor to the paper's blog site, wrote last week about the changing nature of the market.

On Friday, writer Aubrey Cohen called to get our take on the Seattle housing market numbers. The numbers that come out of the Northwest MLS are just starting to show year over year declines. (If you're an Altos watcher, you've seen this coming for a long time now of course.) Aubrey notes that the mix of property types being sold have an impact on the over all "median price" of a market. He uses one of my favorite qutoes to describe the 2007 (where the pain is starting low).

And the recent problems in the subprime mortgage market, which serves people with poor credit, have a disproportionate effect on cheaper homes, meaning those that do sell are more likely to be at the higher end of the market, buoying the median price, said Michael Simonsen, chief executive of Altos Research in Mountain View, Calif.

"You don't buy a $1 million waterfront property on a subprime mortgage," he said.

Las Vegas has long been the most maligned city when the housing bubblers do their maligning. The logic of complaints/fears goes something like this:

1. Housing demand of 2000-2005 was driven in large part by second home buyers
   
2. Off the charts levels of new construction keeps supply high
3. When the bubble bursts, those second home buyers are going to be the first to run.
4. Demand will crater. Prices will surely follow.

While no one is popping the champagne any time soon, a year into the housing market burst...erm...correction... and prices for second homes (mostly condos) in Las Vegas are still hanging tough.

This investigation was triggered over breakfast with Altos client Aaron Wheeler of Oakville Properties who mentioned his Las Vegas team is having a surprisingly strong year. (Oakville is headquartered in California, but does a good business matching people with the right properties in Las Vegas.)

Here's a chart that touches on what Aaron was talking about.

What gives? Why hasn't the Las Vegas housing market tanked yet*?

The answer is that Las Vegas real estate appears to be buoyed by those same second homes that the bubblistas were so afraid of.

When I was a kid, the second home market was a cabin on Lake Somethingorother in Northern Wisconsin. Somewhere in the '90s Las Vegas became the second home city of choice for vacation-bound Chicagoans. And Angelenos. And Hong Kongers.

So it turns out that this housing bubble is deflating in unexpected ways. And the Las Vegas housing market is an exaggerated version of the country's experience. Let's sum it up this way:

The economy is pulling real estate, not the other way around. Las Vegas is a global destination and the world's economy is BOOMING.

The pressure is building at the low end of the market. Mortgages are getting tougher and more expensive. But investment is strong, people are working. And the top-end globally is rolling. The whole country benefits from global economic strength. Vegas real estate maybe more so. Who knew?

*Not that this is a puff-piece article. There are indeed plenty of signs of fragility. Prices for single family homes in Las Vegas haven't held up nearly as well. Days On Market averages are climbing into discomfort zone. There are plenty of options for buyers. Caveat Emptor.

link: Las Vegas Real Estate Market free research and subscription

Jessica at Inman this morning reports that, in a fit of fear of a bursting bubble, the SoCal MLS has stopped publishing it's Days on Market stats.

Even if you give them the benefit of the doubt that a Days On Market stat can be misleading as a standalone indicator of housing market conditions, the move is just plain silly. Bite the bullet guys, sweeping bad news under the rug doesn't make the bad news go away. It just makes it harder to manage intelligently for home buyers and sellers.

So since you can no longer get a view from the SoCal MLS, you'll have to get it from us. And we, of course, don't present DoM as a standalone indicator.

Among lots of other market data, when we survey a market, we calculate an mean Days on Market vs. a median Days on Market. (The mean, remember, is the average. It'll skew higher if just a few porperties are on the market for super long times. The median is the measure of half the market. So half the homes are on less than X days.) It's fascinating to watch in a changing market, for example, the median drop while the average stays high. That illustrates the freshest properties--and the ones priced right--are turning over quickly while the stale, overpriced, unappealing properties are lingering.

Because I know you're interested, here's a chart illustrating the median Days on Market for some key Southern California real state markets. You can see we're past the seasonal Spring Fling of new properties coming on and the Dog Days are approaching. Though higher than it's been for years, 2+ months is actually not that crazy painful (easy for me to say). This is the median, remember so there are lots of properties hanging around for several (many) months.

[update] Here's average DoM too, note the effect of stale properties staying on the market and skewing the average higher than the median:

Further Research Details available here:

Los Angeles Real Estate Market

Irvine Real Estate Market

Pasadena Real Estate Market

Thousand Oaks Real Estate Market

We're quoted in a fun article by Noam Cohen in today's New York Times.

The topic is the emerging predictive power of internet information. Triggered by the recent murders by a pro-wrestler, and its seemingly prescient reporting in Wikipedia, Noam draws the comparison to the oracles on the Ides of March.

My friend Bill Tancer of Hitwise is also cited. Bill and I gave a talk on this very topic at FOO Camp a couple weeks ago. Bill likes to predict American Idol winners based on search data they capture at Hitwise (and he's good at it, though not infallible.) He's also demonstrated some potentially actionable leading data on housing, unemployment, and the spread of pandemic fears. Bill calls it searchonomics. Here's the point I like to make:

This information serves a Wall Street function as “closer to real time” data for investors, said Michael Simonsen, Altos’s president and chief executive.

“We are really early in the predictive power of the Internet; financial markets are getting a hang of it,” he says. “We have miles to go in all the nuances in capturing information.”

And that's the key, really. Predictive power is a trade-off between advance time and uncertainty. So the more the information is reported in real time, the more it is measured in real time and the more efficient markets get. Funny how in this view, the Bloomberg terminal looks like steam power.

Altos Research happens to be in the business of measuring really, really quickly. In markets where it takes a long time to get the data to people, the internet blows the roof off previously held conventions. Robin Hanson nails it:

Robin Hanson of George Mason University, an expert on using future markets to track public sentiment, said an e-mail exchange that these examples are hardly evidence of predicting the future. Rather, he suggested, it was “a bit newspaper-centric to say that news has not broke ‘publicly’ if it is being discussed online in rumors but has not appeared in a newspaper.” He added that “with more and more kinds of media, there are more and more intermediate levels of info availability.”

This is the crucial dividing line: between reporting on events in as close to real time as possible — which can prove jarring to society, and journalists in particular, but hardly supernatural — and predicting things around the bend.

Cool stuff. Nicely captured by Cohen.