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Thursday, October 2. 2008Real Estate Market Case Shiller ETFs almost hereUPDATE: IPO June 30, 2009 - Here's the latest on the MacroMarkets Housing ETF Getting closer to reality: Yesterday Bob Shiller's firm MacroMarkets announced that they've cleared the final approval for their exchange-traded funds based on the Case Shiller Index. I've written in the past how huge this is. You can finally stem your real estate losses in a falling housing market. Or you can bet on the return of the market. And it's as easy as buying a stock on e-trade. From the press release MacroShares Major Metro Housing will provide investors with much needed access to the housing asset class, allowing for investment in either the upward or downward movement of home prices. The securities are designed to track the change in U.S. Home Prices as measured by the closely-followed S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Home Price Index through the termination date. The paired securities will have a ten year term and will feature a 2x (200%) leverage factor. Case Shiller based options and futures have been listed on the Chicago Merc for several years now. But the mechanics of that trade and account system have made it virtually impossible for anyone outside of Wall Street (aka the "End Users") to take advantage. The funds are scheduled to IPO November 3. They'll trade with NYSE:UMM (which goes up when home prices go up.) and NYSE:DMM (which goes up when home prices decline) These are unique financial instruments. In particular they don't own any real estate assets. This is not like a Gold ETF that buys gold and keeps it in an Amsterdam warehouse. Rather these funds hold cash (or treasuries). The cash moves from one to the other depending on the movement in the underlying Case Shiller 10-city composite. There are other peculiarities of these things too, but suffice it to say that these are the simplest, most direct way (only way?) to make money in real estate without going out and buying physical property. More complete review is here. Obvious disclaimer: don't take my advice about financial instruments or investing.
Posted by Mike Simonsen
in Case Shiller, Economics, House Prices, Real Estate Trends, Technology
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08:13
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Tuesday, September 30. 2008Case Shiller Index Falls 1% in JulyHere are the Case Shiller Index numbers released today for July. No big surprise. Down of course. One percent more this month. Down 17% from July 2007. As I've been saying in the press lately, we've seen no signs of a bottom. Even before the crisis of the last couple weeks, pricing through September continues to be down sequentially. As we've already measured, the next three months of the Case Shiller numbers continue their fall at the same pace. Price decreases through September have not accelerated. There are no signs of market inflection points yet either. Days on Market is climbing and Inventories are flat at best. Contact us if you want specifics on the CSI for a given future date or a given MSA market.
Our National Report for September data comes out later this week with the current view on the market rather than the backward looking stuff released today. Stay tuned for details Friday, September 5. 2008Report: Real Estate Prices Down by 1.5% in AugustOur Latest National Housing Market Report is out. You can download the PDF here. From the press release:
Posted by Mike Simonsen
in House Prices, Housing Market, press coverage, Real Estate Data, Real Estate Prices, Real Estate Report
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07:15
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Friday, August 1. 2008The Best and Worst Performing Zip Codes Around the CountryAltos scores the big spread in BusinessWeek today! And you know what? We found some very interesting trends. Aside from poor Las Vegas, we are able to find some healthy pricing trends in every metro we sampled. What do the up markets have in common? Well, almost without exception, they're the nice parts of town. The biggest down zip codes? Again almost without exception, the hardest hit markets are the cheapest parts of town. The phenomenon is working like this: There are a few folks who are well financed, and they for the first time in years, get to buy in the best neighborhoods without a ton of competition. Mortgages are still historically cheap, if in fact you can get one. While at the low end, no one can get financing, and of course those with the craziest mortgages are now selling or foreclosing. The mayhem starts at the bottom. Check out the full article. Fascinating reading.
Posted by Mike Simonsen
in Altos Research, House Prices, press coverage, Real Estate Data
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09:07
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Thursday, July 17. 2008Fighting the Good FightI twittered this yesterday, but since it's possibly my favorite press coverage my company has received, I figured I blog it today too. Apparently Hulk Hogan is getting a divorce. He needs, of course, to understand what's happening in the housing market, especially in Las Vegas where he and his soon-to-be-ex have a condo. Where does a pro-wrestler-turned-reality-tv-star turn for the best insights? Why "prominent research firm, Altos Research" of course.
Glad to help, Hulkster. Glad to help.
Posted by Mike Simonsen
in House Prices, Las Vegas real estate, press coverage
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05:17
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Tuesday, June 10. 2008June 2008 National Real Estate Report ReleasedWe released the latest National Real Estate Report today. You can download it here [PDF]. The data inspects 26 metro markets around the country and tracks home prices, inventory and days on market. We also track the Altos 10-City Composite for a National perspective on the trends. Here's the press release:
Friday, May 9. 2008May 2008 National Real Estate ReportOur latest National Real Estate Report is out this morning. The headline this month is that while the Altos National 10-City Composite price fell by 0.6% from last month, prices only fell in 7 of the 25 markets covered in the report. Maybe some signs of life? Too soon to call. Probably just spring. Here's where you can download the full PDF May 2008 National Real Estate Report. Here's a chart of our two national housing market composite price metrics. ![]() National Real Estate Prices as measured by the Altos 10-City and Altos 25-City Composites. Data through the first week of May 2008 Here's the full press release:
Posted by Mike Simonsen
in Altos Research, House Prices, press coverage, Real Estate Report, real estate research
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08:03
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Monday, April 14. 2008Charts around the Bay Area for April 14Spent much of the day looking up data for press requests. Everybody wants to know if we're at a bottom. Thought I'd drop some in here. Not a lot of time to write today, so here are some comparison charts for homes around the Bay Area. San Francisco, Burlingame, Walnut Creek, and San Jose. All Data as of April 11 2008. ![]() Median Price Trends for homes in San Francisco, Burlingame, San Jose, and Walnut Creek. ![]() Days on Market for the same cities. Note the seasonal decline still leaves us higher than last year at this time. ![]() Our Market Action Index for the same cities. This is a composite of market demand statistics rolled into one number. Under 30 implies demand weakness, or "buyer opportunity." Under 20 is frigid. Given the tight scale on this chart, conditions are not worsening considerably in the last few months.
Posted by Mike Simonsen
in Bay Area real estate, House Prices, Real Estate Data, Trend Charts
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15:12
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Tuesday, March 25. 2008Sales up, prices down? Existing Home Sales and Case Shiller IndexThe February Existing Home Sales numbers were released yesterday by NAR. You probably saw the headlines. Home sales were, gasp, up! Today the latest Case Shiller Index was released. In typical fashion, they're just getting around to telling us what happened in January. Guess what? It was ugly. Here, courtesy Fritz at TFS, are the 20 Case Shiller Markets vs. their market peaks.
Altos Links: For those of you with more than a passing interest in knowing thhe real estate data before these lagging indicators get published, Altos has two things for you:
Posted by Mike Simonsen
in Case Shiller, Economics, House Prices, Real Estate Data, Real Estate Report
at
08:27
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Monday, February 4. 2008Measuring the Decline in the Sacramento Housing MarketJonathan Miller published the November Radar Logic RPX housing market report over the weekend. It's easy to spot that Sacramento is leading the nation down. [aside: Radar Logic is cool. They measure Price Per Square Foot and try to do it across all properties, condos and single family homes, new and existing construction. No small task. The price per square foot approach is intended to measure value of the property regardless of the size of the property itself. In the real estate derivatives trading business, Radar is getting all the mindshare. Case Shiller is falling behind. more here.] In the report just published for November, Sacramento saw a price-per-square-foot decline of 18%. Zowie. For those of you unfamiliar with California's central valley, this is an area dominated by lots of new construction, in huge projects, partly as Bay Area super-exurb. So the underlying economy in the Central Valley isn't nearly as dynamic as San Francisco, San Jose, or Los Angeles. Also much less dominated by the high-end, Sacramento is feeling the subprime fallout harder than most. So Radar Logic is publishing for November. What are the real-time stats saying? Sacramento is not seeing any relief yet. Here's our price per square foot for Sacramento through February 1 2008. ![]() Price Per Square Foot for single family homes in Sacramento, CA through Feb 1 2008. Notice the price is slightly higher than the Radar Logic number. That's because we track Condominiums separately and this is for the city of Sacramento specifically. The important factor is the direction. Sacramento Housing Market Data Links:Our free Sacramento Real Estate Research page Here's a solid Sacramento Area Blog for more local flavor. Tuesday, December 4. 2007John Keith, Boston Real Estate Broker
John's blog is excellent. He's been very effective integrating the Altos market analytics information into his posts. So we asked him to write a post for us about how he uses the Altos Research services in his business, his blog, and with his clients. John also generously included an endorsement, which I'm more than happy to include here. Note: I've done a tiny little bit of editing, and I added the images. Everythig else comes directly from John. Enjoy:
I am a Boston real estate agent. I have a blog devoted to Boston Real Estate, at bostonreb.com. My blog has a main page with daily updates of news and information about the Boston real estate market. In addition, on this page, visitors can search through all the condos and single-family homes listed for sale in our local Multiple Listing Service. Also, visitors may click through to pages of information I have written that are of specific interest to buyers, sellers, investors, etc. I signed-up as an Altos Research client several months ago. I thought it would be a great way to provide another much-needed service to my site's visitors. More importantly, I figured it would make me be seen as an "expert" on the Boston real estate market. Therefore, visitors would be more likely to inquire about using me as their real estate agent, increasing my business (and my revenue). After being an Altos Research client for several months, I have seen very positive results and can say I'm very happy I have made the investment.
How I Leverage Altos Research in My Blog and Business Banner for John Keith's blog BostonREB.com. Note the MLS Search, Market Reports, and New Developments dedicated pages. These are the three things that everyone wants to know about. The Market Reports, of course, come from Altos. This past week, I added separate neighborhood-specific pages to my blog. [ed: here's The Fenway, for example.] These pages have blog entries devoted to each major Boston neighborhood. The idea is, visitors to my site will start on the main blog page, then click through to read more about specific neighborhoods. I have an AltosChart on each of these neighborhood- specific pages, set up to show market data just for that neighborhood, by ZIP code. Probably some time in the near future, I'll be adding a link on these pages to each neighborhood's Altos market report (using each neighborhood's ZIP code). I'm also about to set up an MLS search, preset by neighborhood, showing just listings in that specific neighborhood. I expect this to have great results. The majority of visitors will continue to begin their visit on my main page, but then they will want to visit the page focused on just their neighborhood(s) of interest. By having the MLS search and AltosCharts on each neighborhood's page, I'm providing visitors with useful information.
How Strong the Call-To-Action? Measuring My Return on Investment Tuesday, October 23. 2007On Wildfires, Black Swans, and Home Prices.A paper in the Journal of Emergency Management came across my desk today. Measuring the Efficacy of a Wildfire Education Program in Colorado Springs Timely, considering the state of Southern California right now and of Tahoe earlier this summer. The program sounds like a fascinating way to increase awareness of the fire risk (awareness being the key factor in reducing the controllable variables). Preparation for disasters like this is of course subject to the Black Swan effect:
So what can public policy do to motivate people to better manage their exposure? In Colorado Springs, they evaluated every parcel, 35,000 of them, and gave each a rating. Now the city can tell me I have a very-high-risk property and get me thinking about trimming the pine boughs back from my cedar-shingle roof. Then they publish that information. When I go to buy a home in the area, I can factor that into my purchase. That's positive. But is it effective? And how do we measure changes in risk perceptions? The authors of the paper took a novel approach.
A market-based approach. Nice. Incent homeowners to fix the easy stuff that makes up most of the wildfire risk. Very cool. And the results?
In contrast, post-assessment there is no such correlation. Post-assessment wood roofs and wood siding now have a negative impact on price. As a result, people are migrating to safer building materials. Good stuff. Too bad it's a lesson a bit too late for the disasters this week. We'll keep an eye on the data to see if we can discern any immediate impact on home prices in San Diego from the fires. Will report back soon.
Monday, September 24. 2007Damned Lies and Median Home PricesThe bubble is bursting all around us and the National Association of Realtors comes out with a report that San Francisco Bay Area median home prices increased by 13% in the second quarter. Nooooo, can it be? If you can't trust NAR, who can you trust? Stephen Bedikian of RealIQ has a nice piece today over at Inman News sorting through the confusion. He cites some Altos numbers to help make sense of the turmoil. Stephen concludes:
In addition to Stephen's suggestion of diversifying your stats, I'll add that if you're not looking local, you're not looking anywhere. The Bay Area market? Are you kidding? This spring, you could indeed watch a few key markets, like Palo Alto and up the Peninsula stay strong. But look even a few miles inland, say Antioch, and the carnage was everywhere. To be fair to NAR, we reported the same trends for some of those parts of the Bay Area in February, March, and April. We also noted that by May, the Spring price growth had already begun to recede. (Notably correlated, by the way, with the widening spreads on jumbo mortgages that started at that time. Surprise! The high-end starts to fade when fat mortgages get more expensive.) So here we are five months later and NAR is telling you that San Francisco had a strong spring. Thanks guys. [ps. sorry about the long hiatus from the blogosphere. Hope you've been enjoying Scott's posts on real estate e-marketing tactics. Our plan is to intersperse both topics together. Thanks to Stephen for getting me off my ass and posting. I like his work, we'll have to do more together in the future.] Monday, August 27. 2007Yahoo! Article - "Home Sales Hit Slump"http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070827/economy.html?.v=13
Tuesday, July 31. 2007Super Cool Bay Area Real Estate Market MashupClient, friend, and indefatigable blogger Kevin Boer has a really slick map mashup of our AltosCharts housing price charts for the Bay Area, using our price quartile data. Kevin uses Zeesource and the result is prettier than our own map mashup (though ours covers all our markets and has a zoom-in-to-the-zip-codes feature.) Our AltosCharts service is up for the Most Innovative Technology award at the Inman Connect conference this week. It's partners like Kevin that really illustrate the power of using market analytics to inform. We're proud to count him as a client. I'm not sure how the winners are selected for these awards, but maybe fans of Kevin's work will stuff the ballot box for us. And while I'm patting myself on the back, here are a couple of other Altos clients that use AltosCharts really well to bring value to their readers, and boost their own marketing return: The Harper Team in the East Bay (BTW - I don't mean to exclude any other clients and your sites. There are too many to mention. Feel free to add your site to the comments of this blog if you want to show off your AltosCharts work. I'll work up a post highlighting other sites soon.)
Posted by Mike Simonsen
in Altos Research, Bay Area real estate, California real estate, clients, East Bay real estate, fun, House Prices, Housing and Real Estate Trends, Housing Market, Real Estate Agents, Real Estate Market, Real Estate Marketing Tools, Real Estate Prices, Silicon Valley real estate, Technology, Trend Charts
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08:50
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