Real Estate Prices

Here are the Case Shiller Index numbers released today for July. No big surprise. Down of course. One percent more this month. Down 17% from July 2007. As I've been saying in the press lately, we've seen no signs of a bottom. Even before the crisis of the last couple weeks, pricing through September continues to be down sequentially.

As we've already measured, the next three months of the Case Shiller numbers continue their fall at the same pace. Price decreases through September have not accelerated. There are no signs of market inflection points yet either. Days on Market is climbing and Inventories are flat at best. Contact us if you want specifics on the CSI for a given future date or a given MSA market.

MSA	CSI July 2008	Change from June 2008	Year over year change
Boston	162.58	0.17%	-5.35%
Chicago	149.6	-0.35%	-9.95%
Denver	132.67	0.77%	-4.71%
Las Vegas	154.15	-2.75%	-29.90%
Los Angeles	192.55	-1.63%	-26.18%
Miami	186.84	-1.60%	-28.25%
New York	192.92	-0.76%	-7.41%
San Diego	172.2	-1.81%	-25.02%
San Francisco	156.88	-1.85%	-24.81%
Washington DC	195.49	-1.07%	-15.80%
10-City Composite	178.46	-1.09%	-17.49%

Our National Report for September data comes out later this week with the current view on the market rather than the backward looking stuff released today. Stay tuned for details

...what's going to happen to condo prices in Manhattan?

We've noted elsewhere that New York city real estate has managed hold up reasonably well while Rome burns, though 2009 is looking a bit smoky for condos in the financial services capital of the world. On the horizon watch the three confluential variables:

1. The layoffs be a-comin'
2. Bonuses are heading down for those who remain
3. The dollar is strengthening

Here's what we know about the Manhattan condo market as of September 12, 2008.

• Year over year, we see condo prices in Manhattan (all zips) basically flat at a median price right around $1.6 million.
• That buys you on average, incidentally, a 1200 square foot, 2 bed, 1 bath place in a 64 year old building. Of course the "average" condo in Manhattan is as elusive as the "average" family in the country. Let me know when you meet one. By the way, we're talking condos specifically here. NYC's bizzarro-world co-op structure is examined in different data.
• They've been on the market, on average, for over four months. My guess is that this number skews higher than it might feel like if you're actually shopping in Manhattan, because, more than anywhere else in the country, the best properties move with behind-the-scenes, my-broker-knows-someone kind of deals.
• [self promotional aside: if you want to dig into all these details yourself, start on our free data for New York, and register. Subscribe to the Condos report for NYC and dive into the parts of town you care about. end promotion]

Where do we go from here?

• Securities Industry employment fell by 11% in the last bubble burst. Bear Sterns, Lehman, Merrill, AIG: they're coming fast and furious this time too.
• It's well known that bonuses drive much of the seasonal demand, on the Street in the
  past couple years a very simple, very common trade has been to short the builders and go long commodities. The evaporated funds behind the long commodities positions alone are going to eat big chunks from the 2008 bonus pool.
• Other things eating at this year's bonuses - M&A is way down, IPOs are non-existent. New product innovation ("Hey," says some underwriter at AIG, "let's insure these sub-prime loans against losses! We can't lose!") is crushed by internal or governmental forces. The liquidity that leveraged it all. Sheesh, I get
  exhausted just listing the down forces.
• International money (particularly Europe and Middle East) has been a prop for New York real estate for over a year now. For some in the world, Manhattan real estate hasn't been this cheap in a long time. Likely a small percentage of over all transactions, these push the margins enough to keep a floor on demand and therefore prices. But now: The last couple months have seen a dramatic turn in the dollar as the European economy weakens also.

So, look, the top-end of most regional markets has weathered the storm so far (see the discussion on my Fox TV interview). And Manhattan is notably the top-end for the region. But the fact is we're just starting this recession and this time around it's a financials-led recession. The few factors keeping Manhattan condos afloat into 2008 are evaporating in front of our eyes. My guess: Median price for Manhattan condo will down 20% in 2009. That part is just a guess. I'm simply finding it difficult to identify any factors to be sanguine about.

Our Latest National Housing Market Report is out. You can download the PDF here.

From the press release:

Mountain View, CA September 5, 2008 -- The Altos 10-City Composite Price Index showed a decline in asking prices of 1.5% in August and 2.3% for the past three months. Prices of properties listed for-sale fell in 20 of 25 major markets according to the Real-Time Real Estate Report,published by Altos Research, the premier source for real-time real estate research, and market analysis consultancy Real IQ.

Asking prices fell at the fastest rate in Las Vegas -- down 4.8% during August -- and 8.6% over the most recent three-month period for an annualized rate of nearly 35%. Listing prices rose at the fastest rate in Denver -- up 1.9% in August -- followed by San Diego where prices were up 1.4%.

"Many markets that had posted multi-month sequential price increases during the Summer months displayed fresh weakness in August," said Stephen Bedikian, partner and research director for Real IQ. "This could portend a general resumption of the downward trend in prices as most markets typically experience seasonal weakness in the Fall and Winter months."

Inventory levels declined in 21 of 25 markets. Inventory fell by the largest amounts in Seattle and Dallas with inventory contracting 6.0% and 4.8% respectively. Many markets showed inventory declines of more than two percent for the past month including: San Francisco, San Jose, Washington, D.C., San Diego, Phoenix, Charlotte and Houston.

"While seasonal weakness is typical in the Fall and Winter months, continued widespread inventory reductions like we saw in August could temper near-term price declines," said Michael Simonsen, CEO and co-founder of Altos Research.

Sixteen of 26 markets had an average days-on-market of 100 or more. Days-on-market declined in just three of 26 markets. By far, the market with the slowest rate of inventory turnover was again Miami at an average of 160 days-on-market. Both San Diego and San Francisco experienced the fastest rate of inventory turnover at an average of 84 days-on-market, followed closely by Austin at 86 days.

Data in the Real-Time Housing Market Report is based on analysis of over one million properties currently listed for-sale in 26 metropolitan markets across the country. The report is the most timely source of housing market data on current market activity.

The report examines housing pricing, inventory levels and market conditions in 31 major U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): Atlanta, Austin, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington, DC. The Real-Time Real Estate Report is released every month.

We released our National Real Estate Report today. Here's the press release.

Real Estate Report: Housing Prices Down By 0.5% in June

Report measures current real estate data in major markets around the country. Data shows Las Vegas the weakest US housing market with real estate prices down 3.6% in June. Current real estate data shows Denver the strongest US housing market in June with prices up fractionally over May 2008.
MOUNTAIN VIEW, CA July 8, 2008 - he Altos 10-City Composite Price Index showed a decline in asking prices of 0.5% in June and 0.8% for the past three months. Prices of properties listed for-sale increased in 15 of 26 major markets according to the Real-Time Real Estate Report, published by Altos Research, the premier source for real-time real estate data, and market analysis consultancy Real IQ.

Asking prices fell at the fastest rate in Las Vegas - down 3.6% during June - and 7.2% over the most recent three-month period. This is the third consecutive month that Las Vegas has held that dubious honor. Listing prices rose at the fastest rate in Denver - up 2.6% in June and 6.4% over the most recent three-month period.

"While the Composite Index continues to show price declines, the rate of decline has slowed recently and more than half of the markets we track are showing sequential asking price increases over the past three months," said Stephen Bedikian, partner and research director for Real IQ. "Housing markets are local, and this downturn remains largely confined to specific geographic areas of the country with four states in particularly bad shape: California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona."

Listed property inventories increased substantially with the 10-City Composite markets showing an increase of 5.7% during the past three months and 1.9% in June. Inventory rose in 17 of 26 markets with the largest jumps in Los Angeles and San Diego, up 8.7% and 6.1% respectively in June.

Data in the Real-Time Housing Market Report is based on analysis of over one million properties currently listed for-sale in 26 metropolitan markets across the country. The report is the most timely source of housing market data on current market activity.

For the Altos 10-City Composite, the average days-on-market was 109, a slight increase from 106 in May. Eleven of 26 markets had an average days-on-market of over 100. By far, the market with the slowest rate of inventory was Miami at an average of 154 days-on-market. Austin led all markets with the fastest rate of inventory turnover at an average of 72 days-on-market.

"Inventory continues to increase which is typical during the seasonally strong spring and summer seasons," said Michael Simonsen, CEO and co-founder of Altos Research. "The true test will come in the fall when the market experiences seasonal weakness. If inventory, especially foreclosure listings, piles up too quickly, prices may start declining broadly again."

The report examines housing pricing, inventory levels and market conditions in 31 major U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): Atlanta, Austin, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Salt Lake City, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington, DC. The first report was published December 7, 2007 and is released every month. Report downloads are available at: www.altosresearch.com.

The New York Times last week carried a story on the tale of two housing markets.

AUSTIN, Tex. — The real estate market these days is a tale of two Americas, and one of them is not doing too badly.

In the America of big-city housing markets, especially on the coasts and in the struggling industrial Midwest, the huge run-up in values in recent years has given way to big drops in prices and sales volume. Millions of people owe more than their houses are worth.

But in the other America, specifically in cities like Austin; Grand Forks, N.D.; Yakima, Wash.; and Salem, Ore., the available evidence suggests the real estate market is holding up. Prices there never boomed as crazily as they did in the big cities, and now, even though volume is down almost everywhere, prices in many of these towns are firm or rising.

We'll leave aside the fact falling prices in the struggling industrial towns and the falling prices on the coast are barely related to each other and focus instead on the last statement.

Are home prices in Austin, Texas indeed holding up? Let's look:

From our perspective, Austin is indeed holding up better than some of the most bubbly markets, like Phoenix and San Diego.

Keep in mind though that in every market, the answer is: it depends. It depends on your price point, it depends on your neighborhood. In fact if we dive into Austin a little deeper, we find where that even though the prices haven't adjusted deeply, we can see where market demand is indeed cooling.

Days on market is climbing steadily across all price points. Despite a seasonal improvement in market time, The high end of Austin is on the market for a pretty long time right now. Buyers are in no hurry.

Furthermore, in Austin, when you look at the price quartiles, you can see the top of the market is squeezing but the bottom remains reasonably solid. This often implies, as the Times suggests, that the underlying economy is strong, immigration is positive, and people aren't so worried about their jobs. Here's the chart of home prices in Austin, by quartile. Note the slight squeeze at the top end of the market.

So I'll conclude with a cautious agreement with the Times. Yes indeed there are markets so far escaping major carnage. Many of these markets didn't have the incredible upside in the past few years, so that stands to reason. Finally though, nearly all markets are showing signs of weakness. The key worry for all these markets is that they're following the economy, not leading it. If a recession evolves into full bloom, I don't see how anyone is spared.

Links:

Austin Real Estate Report

San Diego Real Estate Report

Phoenix Real Estate Report

Some posts just write themselves.

Can't. Help. It. Must. Write. More.

Ugly? You betcha. Do these tell the whole story? Not a chance. In Silicon Valley, San Jose is the dominant market, of course. San Jose is a diverse community, with lots of sub-prime and other crazy loans in the past few years. But also some really great neighborhoods with prosperous, fully employed folks. Lots of big, but not-risky loans too. Here's how the market in a desirable part of town, Willow Glen, is holding up. I've done the price chart in Quartiles so you can see the trends at each price point in the market.

Link: San Jose Housing Market.

When we started this company, one of the things we envisioned was creating a National Housing Market Report -- one that would be a right-now alternative to the laggard OFHEO reports and even the Case Shiller releases. Well today is the day, folks. The Altos Research Real IQ National Housing Market Report is here!

In it we look at 20 major metro markets, publish some key stats about pricing and supply and demand trends and we draw some conclusions about what's happening out there. The U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) covered in the report include: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington, DC.

We're working in conjunction with Stephen Bedekian from Real IQ. Stephen is an industry leader, writer, and consultant and he helped bring this project together. This being the first issue, it took us a few extra days of editing. In future months, we'll be aiming to publish the report just a few days after month's end.

The latest version of the report is available for download on our financial institutions page. Or you can download the PDF here.

The Press Release headline this month isn't any shocking news - Surprise! Prices are still under pressure! But we're laying the foundation here to be the first to identify the eventual bottom of the market. From the press release:

REPORT: HOUSING PRICES
CONTINUE DECLINE IN NOVEMBER

Time-on-Market
Increased as Housing Market Demand Falls Faster than Supply

MOUNTAIN VIEW, CA
- December 13, 2007 – The listing prices on properties in 18 of 20 major markets across the U.S. fell during the month of November. San Diego experienced the steepest decline with listing prices falling 5.8 percent as the recent wildfires exacted a toll on demand. This information was presented in the newly-launched Real-Time National Housing Market Report*, published by Altos Research, the premier source for real-time, real-estate market research and Real IQ™, a market analysis consultancy.

The Real-Time National Housing Market Report is based on an analysis of data from over one million properties currently listed for sale in 20 metropolitan markets across the country and represents the most timely source of housing market data on current market activity.

“Real estate information tends to be highly latent and subject to a lot of revisions,” said Michael Simonsen CEO and co-founder of Altos Research. “It takes several months before the S&P/Case Shiller Index or the
OFHEO data is released for a given month. When you're making investment decisions or trading derivatives these lag times are simply killers.”

Another key trend noted in the new report was an increase in the time-on-market duration for homes on sale in virtually all markets. Miami experienced the longest time-on-market span with an average days-on-market of 137 in November. Minneapolis had the second highest average days-on-market at 125.

Listed property inventory levels displayed seasonal declines in many markets with the exception of Las Vegas where for-sale property listings increased 6.6% over the past three month. “While inventory levels declined in most major markets, the decline in supply could not keep pace with the rapid fall in demand,” said Stephen Bedikian, partner and research director for Real IQ. “We expect time-on-market will continue to lengthen and apply pressure on homeowner pricing decisions until buyers regain confidence and demand levels off. So far that point is not in sight.”

*The first report was published December 7, 2007 and will be released every month. Report downloads are available from Altos Research.

If you've watched the Case Shiller Index numbers this year, you might have noticed that Denver, Colorado is the lone market still registering positive housing price gains for 2007. (BTW: if you prefer Uncle Sam's OFHEO numbers, you'll have just this week discovered that the US housing market is under pressure.)

We've been watching Denver too, because that a market that's been bucking the trend. We recently opened our subscription service for real estate professionals in Denver, as well as home buyers and sellers there.

Here's what the median price looks like for the Denver MSA, in a rolling average over the past several months.

You can see from the chart, home prices in the Denver area have so far missed the bursting that's hitting most of the rest of the country. Up just fractionally, but steadily this year.

Why the resilience? A couple reasons probably: 1) Colorado real estate didn't have as much upside in the last few years to begin with. 2) The economy and investment levels are still strong. 3) Denver is just a little bit of a laggard economically behind the coastal cities. That implies the burst simply hasn't hit Denver yet.

Looking at the rolling average smooths out weekly noise, so the trend is easier to see. But using a three month rolling average, it'll lag the real-time market a bit. The next chart is the weekly sample.

In this image we're just starting to see the weeklies break below the 90-day rolling average. Too early to make a big bet, perhaps, but a noticeable change nonetheless.

Plus, if you look at the city of Denver the change is much more pronounced. Zowie! That's quite a drop. (caveat: don't discount the seasonal impact that's surely happening in some capacity here.)

Keep an eye on Denver. I'll be fascinated to see if that town is able to demonstrate real staying power, or if it's just a few months behind.

Links:

Free research for the Denver housing market

Free research for the Aurora housing market

etc.

A paper in the Journal of Emergency Management came across my desk today. Measuring the Efficacy of a Wildfire Education Program in Colorado Springs

Timely, considering the state of Southern California right now and of Tahoe earlier this summer.

The program sounds like a fascinating way to increase awareness of the fire risk (awareness being the key factor in reducing the controllable variables). Preparation for disasters like this is of course subject to the Black Swan effect:

...most people are uncomfortable making risk estimates of uncertain events such as wild fires... They may think, "There has never been a wildfire where I live, so it is very unlikely that there will be one in the future."

So what can public policy do to motivate people to better manage their exposure? In Colorado Springs, they evaluated every parcel, 35,000 of them, and gave each a rating. Now the city can tell me I have a very-high-risk property and get me thinking about trimming the pine boughs back from my cedar-shingle roof. Then they publish that information. When I go to buy a home in the area, I can factor that into my purchase. That's positive.

But is it effective? And how do we measure changes in risk perceptions? The authors of the paper took a novel approach.

Rather than simply measuring changes in risk perceptions, we examine the effect of the program on the housing market. This provides a more complete picture of how the CSFD approach to education affects homeowner attitudes toward wildfire risk.

A market-based approach. Nice. Incent homeowners to fix the easy stuff that makes up most of the wildfire risk. Very cool.

And the results?

Perhaps the most striking result is that pre-assessment home prices and wildfire risk were positively correlated. In other words, houses with higher wildfire risk also had higher sales prices. The reason for this is [otherwise desirable features also increase fire risk]...building on a ridge may increase the wildfire risk, it also provides better views.

In contrast, post-assessment there is no such correlation. Post-assessment wood roofs and wood siding now have a negative impact on price. As a result, people are migrating to safer building materials.

Good stuff. Too bad it's a lesson a bit too late for the disasters this week. We'll keep an eye on the data to see if we can discern any immediate impact on home prices in San Diego from the fires. Will report back soon.

The bubble is bursting all around us and the National Association of Realtors comes out with a report that San Francisco Bay Area median home prices increased by 13% in the second quarter. Nooooo, can it be? If you can't trust NAR, who can you trust?

Stephen Bedikian of RealIQ has a nice piece today over at Inman News sorting through the confusion. He cites some Altos numbers to help make sense of the turmoil. Stephen concludes:

So what actually happened? Sales transactions increased with a greater proportion on the high end versus the previous quarter. There appears to have been little actual appreciation as evidenced by the Case Shiller and OFHEO numbers, while inventory increased and prices of many listed properties were reduced. So next time you read that median house prices have increased in your area, don't celebrate prematurely. Conduct more research before you reach a conclusion about market conditions in your area.

In addition to Stephen's suggestion of diversifying your stats, I'll add that if you're not looking local, you're not looking anywhere. The Bay Area market? Are you kidding? This spring, you could indeed watch a few key markets, like Palo Alto and up the Peninsula stay strong. But look even a few miles inland, say Antioch, and the carnage was everywhere.

To be fair to NAR, we reported the same trends for some of those parts of the Bay Area in February, March, and April. We also noted that by May, the Spring price growth had already begun to recede. (Notably correlated, by the way, with the widening spreads on jumbo mortgages that started at that time. Surprise! The high-end starts to fade when fat mortgages get more expensive.) So here we are five months later and NAR is telling you that San Francisco had a strong spring. Thanks guys.

[ps. sorry about the long hiatus from the blogosphere. Hope you've been enjoying Scott's posts on real estate e-marketing tactics. Our plan is to intersperse both topics together. Thanks to Stephen for getting me off my ass and posting. I like his work, we'll have to do more together in the future.]

Client, friend, and indefatigable blogger Kevin Boer has a really slick map mashup of our AltosCharts housing price charts for the Bay Area, using our price quartile data. Kevin uses Zeesource and the result is prettier than our own map mashup (though ours covers all our markets and has a zoom-in-to-the-zip-codes feature.)

Our AltosCharts service is up for the Most Innovative Technology award at the Inman Connect conference this week. It's partners like Kevin that really illustrate the power of using market analytics to inform. We're proud to count him as a client. I'm not sure how the winners are selected for these awards, but maybe fans of Kevin's work will stuff the ballot box for us.

And while I'm patting myself on the back, here are a couple of other Altos clients that use AltosCharts really well to bring value to their readers, and boost their own marketing return:

The Harper Team in the East Bay

Pat Kapowich in Sunnyvale

SeattleHome.com

(BTW - I don't mean to exclude any other clients and your sites. There are too many to mention. Feel free to add your site to the comments of this blog if you want to show off your AltosCharts work. I'll work up a post highlighting other sites soon.)

Jessica at Inman this morning reports that, in a fit of fear of a bursting bubble, the SoCal MLS has stopped publishing it's Days on Market stats.

Even if you give them the benefit of the doubt that a Days On Market stat can be misleading as a standalone indicator of housing market conditions, the move is just plain silly. Bite the bullet guys, sweeping bad news under the rug doesn't make the bad news go away. It just makes it harder to manage intelligently for home buyers and sellers.

So since you can no longer get a view from the SoCal MLS, you'll have to get it from us. And we, of course, don't present DoM as a standalone indicator.

Among lots of other market data, when we survey a market, we calculate an mean Days on Market vs. a median Days on Market. (The mean, remember, is the average. It'll skew higher if just a few porperties are on the market for super long times. The median is the measure of half the market. So half the homes are on less than X days.) It's fascinating to watch in a changing market, for example, the median drop while the average stays high. That illustrates the freshest properties--and the ones priced right--are turning over quickly while the stale, overpriced, unappealing properties are lingering.

Because I know you're interested, here's a chart illustrating the median Days on Market for some key Southern California real state markets. You can see we're past the seasonal Spring Fling of new properties coming on and the Dog Days are approaching. Though higher than it's been for years, 2+ months is actually not that crazy painful (easy for me to say). This is the median, remember so there are lots of properties hanging around for several (many) months.

[update] Here's average DoM too, note the effect of stale properties staying on the market and skewing the average higher than the median:

Further Research Details available here:

Los Angeles Real Estate Market

Irvine Real Estate Market

Pasadena Real Estate Market

Thousand Oaks Real Estate Market

They say when you age, everything slows down. There's now evidence to say that you home's value is included in that statement.

According to new research from HUD, the homes of people over 75 appreciate at 1-3% less per year than the homes owned by middle-agers.

The phenomenon appears to be determined by a few factors:

• older people = older homes = greater depreciation
• home improvement counteracts home age depreciation, but home improvement activity declines as people age

Full report here.