September new home sales data

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Friday, October 28. 2005

Here's the stats on new home sales for September:

New home sales versus a September 2004 were essentially unchanged. However, new home sales in the Northeast and West fell 29.1% and 16.2% respectively. And the South was up 14.1%.

Here's a worry sign: the inventory of new homes is at a 10-year high, 4.9 months supply at current sales rates.

Since at our company, we believe, (to ape Tip Oneil) that all real estate is local, let's look at demand levels around Silicon Valley to compare:

This table compares the Market Action Index of existing home sales around Silicon Valley:

APTOS	45
ATHERTON	30
BELMONT	66
BRISBANE	29
BURLINGAME	71
CAMPBELL	69
CAPITOLA	33
CARMEL	23
CUPERTINO	79
DALY CITY	66
EAST PALO ALTO	67
FOSTER CITY	68
GILROY	66
HALF MOON BAY	28
HILLSBOROUGH	32
HOLLISTER	60
LOS ALTOS	76
LOS ALTOS HILLS	33
LOS GATOS	55
MENLO PARK	63
MILLBRAE	55
MILPITAS	80
MONTEREY	25
MONTE SERENO	32
MORGAN HILL	58
MOSS BEACH	11
MOUNTAIN VIEW	97
PACIFICA	54
PACIFIC GROVE	31
PALO ALTO	86
PEBBLE BEACH	22
PORTOLA VALLEY	42
REDWOOD CITY	85
REDWOOD SHORES	63
SALINAS	40
SAN BRUNO	71
SAN CARLOS	79
SAN JOSE	125
SAN MATEO	83
SANTA CLARA	95
SANTA CRUZ	57
SARATOGA	59
SCOTTS VALLEY	45
SOQUEL	42
SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO	68
SUNNYVALE	99
WATSONVILLE	54
WOODSIDE	32

The red lines are what we call a "Buyer's Market" because
inventory is relatively high compared to demand. Currently we see
weakness in the outlier towns away from central Silicon Valley.

The yellow lines show that the ultra-high-end towns are beginning to weaken in demand and supply is growing. A Market Action Index^TM of 30 is the threshold between Buyer's and Seller's markets.

Now check the green lines. Heart of Silicon Valley, moderate priced towns. Demand is very, very strong in these areas.

Posted by Mike Simonsen in Economics at 04:48 | Trackback (1)

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Silicon Valley's Inflection Point?
So far this fall we've seen three notable factors in the Silicon Valley housing market:1. Inventory of homes for sale is historically high. In the Silicon Valley counties we currently cover, inventory has climbed each week for the past 6, this week is d

Weblog: Altos Research Real Estate Insights
Tracked: Nov 05, 05:12

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