For the record, our position at Altos Research is that while home prices have enjoyed a significant surge in the past decade or so, a burst in the so-called housing bubble will have to be triggered first by a significant economic bust. Without a big recession, home prices may go down, up, or sideways. And will. And it'll depend almost entirely on the local market.
On that topic, here's a marvellous article from the Free Market Project, a media watchdog group.
Media claims about a “housing bubble” are nothing new. Since
before the 9/11 terror attacks, the media have been calling the
housing market a “bubble” while predicting an imminent, devastating
decline. Not only have they been wrong in forecasting such a top,
they have thoroughly mischaracterized what an investment bubble is.
Now that the market for homes has finally slowed a bit, the media
are declaring the bubble has burst.
The article cites four years' worth of media stories foretelling the imminent bubble burst. (In fact, some of that 2001 coverage catalyzed the early technical work for Altos Research. There was no effective way of telling what was actually going on in the market, so we built one.)
Journalists have been talking about a housing bubble
since 2001. On September 3 of that year, Forbes magazine warned its
readers about the consequences of home equity values starting “to
wobble,” while stating, “There are ominous signs that this is about
to happen.” On the same day, a BusinessWeek editorial cautioned
about a “double bubble” and told its readers, “A housing bubble may
be developing – right behind the Nasdaq bubble.”
One tricky part to navigate here is the argument that current reports of sales activity, etc. are evidence per se of a bubble either way. Just as this statement doesn't indicate bubble or burst...
On November 28, the National Association of Realtors
reported existing-home data for October, and although sales were
down 2.7 percent from September’s torrid pace, the median national
price rose to $218,000, a 16.6-percent increase since October 2004.
CNN’s Tony Harris on “Live Today” shared the news with his viewers:
“Has the housing boom gone bust? Just in this morning, existing home
sales fell in October more than 2 and a half percent.”
...this one doesn't evidence an absence of bubble
Home Sales Still Going Up: New home sales jumped another 13 percent
in October. While sales of existing homes were down 2.7 percent from
September, the median national price rose to $218,000, a 16.6
percent increase since October 2004.
Stock prices were still going up in March of 2000, but we definitely bubbled over there. No, the most compelling compelling argument is the simplest one
Instead, [home price changes] “‘largely reflect strong economic
fundamentals,’ such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number
of new households.”
People well employed and confident about the future buy homes.