I've been deficient in my blog posting lately, so I'll squeeze one last one in to 2008. Let's look back at the predictions I made a year ago and speculate out a bit for this year, shall we?
Grading my 2008 Predictions, which focused on the RE.Net
- Zillow.com doesn't IPO in 2008. Grade A: Well that was easy. (Note to self, negative predictions are easier that positive ones.) The news here, of course, is that NO ONE went public in 2008. Certainly not real estate related firms. 2009 isn't looking like any change on that front either. Last year I imagined a scenario that had 2010 liquidity event for Zillow. I'd revise that to 2011 at the earliest.
- The corollary - Executive turnover at Zillow. Grade C: Zillow recently and wisely cut a big chunk of staff. But I've got to hand it to them, they've been more stable at the exec level for longer than I expected. I figured that with so many top people, some would be ready to try new opportunities this year. It looks like most of the gang is still there. I remain a bit suspect. A long time in this Valley makes me still feel like they're top heavy. (Do they really have two VPs of engineering? That can't be healthy.) In Zillow's favor this year, the economy will dramatically reduce the greener-grass effect on their talent.
- Redfin.com launches premium products. Grade A: The story in 2007 was Redfin as the consumer champion discounter. The story in 2008 was Redfin as a maturing company, realizing that they needed broader revenue sources and that consumers are often happy paying premium rates for great service. I wonder about Redfin in the coming 18 months or so. Here's the dilemma: It's a sound business with a real market need, but I remain skeptical that the company can achieve the promises made to its investors ($100 million in revenue) any time in the foreseeable future and without significantly more capital. The good news is that Glenn Kelman has proven himself to be a savvy leader and insightful marketer. Redfin marketing has moved from "realtors rip you off" to "Redfin is a way better way to buy a home." Nice work.
- Trulia's traffic ascendancy. Grade B. I was able to call an early win with one comScore traffic chart. But over the year we've seen a leveling off and Trulia not pulling ahead of Zillow. Both sites have continued to add features for pageviews. Though Trulia this year found itself receiving some of the negative pub from the blogosphere previously reserved for Zillow and Redfin, the only one under real pressure looks to be realtor.com (Move).
A pretty good batch if I do say so myself. And maybe I'm just off by timing on the misses. All in all an exciting year for Altos and all the players in the real estate interwebs business.
I'm out of time today. Will try to get my 2009 outlook posted before it hits, you know, second quarter.
