Altos Research Real Estate Insights

Over the past couple of years, we've built our client base with realtors and investors, buyers and sellers, with appraisers and traders, with planners and researchers.

During that time, our products for those folks have taken the form of either detailed analytical reports or simply raw data. Either we do all the analytical work, or you do it.

More and more though, we found that there is a big group of people who need an easy way to solve more unique problems than we can possibly address in our pre-designed local reports, but these folks have neither the time nor the experience to sift through the mountains of real estate data on their own.

We realized we needed a product that lets our clients easily query the vast Altos Research database to get the specific answers they need, and use the output in any number of different ways. Thus AltosXplorer was born.


AltosXplorer is for you if you've ever looked at our report products and said, "I don't need just one city, I need to be able to investigate any stat for any zip in the whole area (region, state, country)." Think about the investor who has opportunities that may come up anywhere in Florida, and wants to quickly compare two markets when a new deal arrives.

Or consider an appraiser who works all over Chicagoland. Any given day he needs to illustrate just a couple of key measures in a neighborhood to augment the rest of the data in his report.

For our Realtor clients, AltosXplorer is a lot of fun too. Previously, in order to use our AltosCharts you needed to formulate a long URL to get the right chart. With AltosXplorer, you build the chart you want with just a few clicks and then click, copy and paste! (See Kris Berg's first foray for the perfect example of how AltosXplorer was intended for our Pro clients.)

Can you tell we're giddy around here? I could go on and on but I'll wrap in a single (albeit multi-claused) sentence:

AltosXplorer is a rich internet application that enables you to do your own analysis, create your own trend AltosCharts, on our full database, and export the data to your own analysis in just a few clicks.

Learn more here. Try it out here.

Enjoy.

I twittered this yesterday, but since it's possibly my favorite press coverage my company has received, I figured I blog it today too.

Apparently Hulk Hogan is getting a divorce. He needs, of course, to understand what's happening in the housing market, especially in Las Vegas where he and his soon-to-be-ex have a condo. Where does a pro-wrestler-turned-reality-tv-star turn for the best insights? Why "prominent research firm, Altos Research" of course.

He also pointed out that Linda Bollea obtained an appraisal before his order to close on the property, and that Terry Bollea obtained his own appraisal several weeks after the order. Terry Bollea's appraisal came in at $1,000,000 less than Linda's.

In a statement issued late Friday, Terry Bollea's attorneys said they, "are gratified" by the ruling, adding, "...the sole justification for this transaction offered by Linda Bollea and her attorneys--that it is a good investment--redefines cluelessness...Nowhere is this more true than in Las Vegas, which the prominent firm Altos Research just this week called 'the weakest U.S. housing market.'"

Glad to help, Hulkster. Glad to help.

Longtime bear Nouriel Roubini is out today with this bit of apocalyptic, headline grabbing prognostication. Roubini, you'll remember, predicted recession for 2006 and 2007 before claiming prescience in 2008. I wish I could write him off as a perma-bear, but there's too much actual data supporting his argument. In his latest media alert, Roubini mixes some valid (and scary) points with plausible conjecture and oddly placed policy opinions (I wish he'd leave out the last group, they detract from the compelling facts of the situation).

The facts are:

• Small banks have massive exposure to real estate (the average small bank has 67% of its assets in real estate)
• Dozens of large regional/national banks (a la IndyMac) are also bankrupt given their extreme exposure to real estate and will also go bust
• The FDIC that has already depleted 10% of its funds in the rescue of IndyMac alone
• Losses are spreading all the way up to prime mortgages and commercial real estate; to unsecured consumer credit (credit cards, student loans, auto loans); ... to corporate bonds ... to CDSs where $62 trillion of nominal protection sits on top an outstanding stock of only $6 trillion of bonds
• In a typical US recession equity prices fall by an average of 28% relative to the peak. But this is not a typical US recession; it is rather a severe one associated with a severe financial crisis

Implications of the facts:

• FDIC will run out of funds and will have to be recapitalized by Congress as its insurance premia were woefully insufficient
• The collapse of many [risk] counterparties will lead to a systemic collapse of this market. Municipalities will go bust, hundreds of small banks, some major money center banks, the entire independent broker-dealer sector will evaporate along with $1-$2 trillion of credit losses.
• Equity prices will fall by about 40% relative to their peak. So, we are only barely mid-way in the meltdown of stock markets.
• Leaving aside the risk of a collapse of the US dollar given this easier monetary policy the Fed Funds rate may end up being closer to 0% than 1% by the end of this financial disaster
• The rest of the world is in for the pain too and as a result, energy and commodity prices will fall 20 to 30% from their recent bubbly peaks.

Dire stuff indeed. The skeptic in me can't help but ask why, in a severe global recession and with the subtraction of trillions of dollars of leverage, commodities that are up 500% in a few years would only pull pack 30%.

I always appreciate Brad Inman's perspective as a consummate real estate insider who is without obligation to cheerlead (like, ahem, some) and an entrenched market leader with the cojones to embrace change. Brad nails it today with 10 predictions for the next phase of the housing bubble burst. Here's a few:

• Exotic loans of any kind will be completely out of favor, leaving many borrowers and many properties unfundable.
• Home sellers will become active lenders, but only those who have equity. Seller financing will help some transactions.
• Second homes, expensive houses and certain types of investment property will be penalized and difficult to fund.

Read the whole piece.

Oh my.

Three of four homes for sale in Stockton are in- or on the path to- foreclosure.

My friend Jeff, the Xbroker, finally launched RateSpeed.com a couple weeks ago. This is a project he's been working on for several years, a personal crusade to clean up the mortgage brokering business. Jeff gave me a demo the last month, and I've since referred multiple people-real, live home buyers and re-financers, to the site. I've been meaning to blog about the site for a while, and I'm now here to say, RateSpeed rocks. The site is incredibly useful for finding current mortgage rates and understanding what they cost.
RateSpeed's model is very simple: they source mortgage rate data from tons of originators, and feed that information back to you. They've done it with three characteristics shockingly rare in the mortgage world.

1. You don't have to give up anything but an email address.
2. Any RateSpeed affiliate broker has to fix and publish their fees. The system doesn't allow for the-no-fees-but-we-gouge-you-on-the-rate-spread and other opaque pricing nastiness the industry is so famous for. What you see is what you get.
3. The presentation of available mortgage products each with their costs and benefits is so straightforward, you can actually be making informed mortgage decisions in just a few seconds.

RateSpeed licenses the platform to mortgage brokers. In exchange, Brokers get an incredibly powerful marketing tool for their site - if I'm any gauge, consumers will gladly give up an email address to see the most current rates and a real, transparent picture of costs.

How cool is that?

We released our National Real Estate Report today. Here's the press release.

Real Estate Report: Housing Prices Down By 0.5% in June

Report measures current real estate data in major markets around the country. Data shows Las Vegas the weakest US housing market with real estate prices down 3.6% in June. Current real estate data shows Denver the strongest US housing market in June with prices up fractionally over May 2008.
MOUNTAIN VIEW, CA July 8, 2008 - he Altos 10-City Composite Price Index showed a decline in asking prices of 0.5% in June and 0.8% for the past three months. Prices of properties listed for-sale increased in 15 of 26 major markets according to the Real-Time Real Estate Report, published by Altos Research, the premier source for real-time real estate data, and market analysis consultancy Real IQ.

Asking prices fell at the fastest rate in Las Vegas - down 3.6% during June - and 7.2% over the most recent three-month period. This is the third consecutive month that Las Vegas has held that dubious honor. Listing prices rose at the fastest rate in Denver - up 2.6% in June and 6.4% over the most recent three-month period.

"While the Composite Index continues to show price declines, the rate of decline has slowed recently and more than half of the markets we track are showing sequential asking price increases over the past three months," said Stephen Bedikian, partner and research director for Real IQ. "Housing markets are local, and this downturn remains largely confined to specific geographic areas of the country with four states in particularly bad shape: California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona."

Listed property inventories increased substantially with the 10-City Composite markets showing an increase of 5.7% during the past three months and 1.9% in June. Inventory rose in 17 of 26 markets with the largest jumps in Los Angeles and San Diego, up 8.7% and 6.1% respectively in June.

Data in the Real-Time Housing Market Report is based on analysis of over one million properties currently listed for-sale in 26 metropolitan markets across the country. The report is the most timely source of housing market data on current market activity.

For the Altos 10-City Composite, the average days-on-market was 109, a slight increase from 106 in May. Eleven of 26 markets had an average days-on-market of over 100. By far, the market with the slowest rate of inventory was Miami at an average of 154 days-on-market. Austin led all markets with the fastest rate of inventory turnover at an average of 72 days-on-market.

"Inventory continues to increase which is typical during the seasonally strong spring and summer seasons," said Michael Simonsen, CEO and co-founder of Altos Research. "The true test will come in the fall when the market experiences seasonal weakness. If inventory, especially foreclosure listings, piles up too quickly, prices may start declining broadly again."

The report examines housing pricing, inventory levels and market conditions in 31 major U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): Atlanta, Austin, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Salt Lake City, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington, DC. The first report was published December 7, 2007 and is released every month. Report downloads are available at: www.altosresearch.com.

A couple of events coming up at the end of July:

We'll be at the Inman Connect conference in San Francisco for the week of July 23-25. I'll be speaking in the blogging session on "Content That Hooks Readers" which, if you read this blog, you'll know I'm woefully under-qualified for. The good news is that the session is hosted by Kris Berg, and includes the inimitable Jeff Corbett, Benn Rosales, Ben Martin, and Sarah Hromack. Heavy hitters all. You're bound to learn something.

We've ponied up for a (gasp) sponsorship this time. Make sure you come by and help us pretend it's worth the investment.

The preceding Tuesday July 22 is the Real Estate BarCamp - conveniently also in San Francisco. Which, when shortened to REBarCamp it sounds like a concrete conference, I know, but I assure you it'll be more compelling. At a BarCamp the attendees get to create the conference on the fly - presenting content that you think others care about and interacting with those who know stuff you want to learn. I've been to a few bar-camps including the proto-FOO Camp last year and they're always a super enjoyable experience.

Scott and I thought we'd bring some Altos Research technology goodies to share with our partners and anyone else who wants to learn how to maximize all the Altos products. So if you're on your way to San Francisco for the Inman conference, stretch a day earlier and come for the BarCamp.