Altos Research Real Estate Insights

Back in New York this week for the Real Estate Derivatives World shindig hosted by Terrapinn. I know. Paaartay!

It's actually exciting for us as we're beta testing new data products we've designed especially for the real estate derivatives traders. Here's a quick glimpse of the Altos 25-City Composite Price, which tracks the Radar Logic 25 markets and the Altos 10-City Composite Price, which tracks housing markets covered with the Case Shiller national Index.

Altos 25-City Composite and Altos 10-City Composite home price metrics for major metros around the country. Data as of February 22 2008

Full product launch and details soon. If you're interested in the housing futures markets, we should be talking.

Link: Altos Real Estate Derivatives Data

Since we started our company a couple years ago, we've generally frowned on marketing activities that that require cash. Our marketing consists primarily of this blog, personal referrals, and the press generated by the real estate data content that we provide. (No taxi billboards for us.) So it's a big deal for us to announce a sponsorship of Dustin Luther's 4Realz Education seminars!

Despite our, ahem, frugality, the decision to sponsor 4Realz was an easy one for us. Dustin, of Rain City Guide and late of Move.com, has proven himself to be not only one of the most savvy internet marketers in the real estate world, but also a gifted teacher of those lessons.

Further, Dustin's been a fan of our products and technology for a while. He gets our vision. When he was at Move, subscribers would call to tell me that they'd attended a Top Producer seminar and Dustin Luther was on stage recommending the Altos products! Let me tell you, those kind of unsolicited, un-sponsored endorsements mean so much to an entrepreneur. They also speak volumes for Dustin, in that he's an independent voice that will guide his audience to the best options available no matter who's footing the bill.

Conclusion: Dustin will be hosting a valuable day for real estate professionals - the kind of activity that we want to be associated with. See you there!

Details: 4Realz Internet Marketing for Realtors

March 6, 2008

Skirball Center, Los Angeles

Given the sorry state of the national housing market, how is Charlotte faring?

Let's look at some of the towns around Lake Norman: Huntersville, Cornelius, and Davidson.

Median home prices for three communities in the Charlotte NC area. Data as of February 15, 2008. Single Family Homes.

At around $300,000, Huntersville and Cornelius are nice upscale markets in a pleasant part of the world. Davidson is a little higher-end and is showing some signs of weakening prices off about 5% from last autumn. Davidson also has the highest days-on-market measure for all three towns. At 140 days, these properties are definitely not flying off the shelves.

But as you can see from the price chart, home prices in this part of the country seem to be holding up. Why is that?

We see two common themes of housing markets avoiding the big crush this winter:

1. They're markets that didn't climb spectacularly high during the boom.
2. They're steady growth economies.

What's a steadily growing economy mean? Well for one thing, it means people are moving in to the area. Check this population chart from Ersys.

Population growth in Charlotte NC. Dark blue shows the highest growth: 100%+ from 1990 to 2000. The cities we're looking at in this post are at the dark blue top edge of the image.

So the Charlotte area has those two things in it's favor. What's next? Where does the market go from here?

Like most of the country, home buyers are in no hurry in Charlotte. We measure relative demand levels with our Market Action Index. When this index drops below 30, we call it (ever optimistic) a "Buyer's Market". The lower this index goes, the lower the current levels of demand and the more likely you are to see home prices decline in the near future. I'm afraid on this point, our Charlotte area towns aren't faring any better than most of the country.

Market Action Index tracks demand for homes relative to the inventory (current amount of homes for sale). Below 30 is what we call a "Buyer's Market". All three are, ahem, Buyer's Markets.

As we mentioned with Austin, Texas the other day, some markets haven't yet been hit by the big hammer. If we escape a painful recession, maybe home values in these markets don't collapse. Unfortunately there's nothing in the early numbers that indicate home prices will climb significantly from here in the near term.

The New York Times last week carried a story on the tale of two housing markets.

AUSTIN, Tex. — The real estate market these days is a tale of two Americas, and one of them is not doing too badly.

In the America of big-city housing markets, especially on the coasts and in the struggling industrial Midwest, the huge run-up in values in recent years has given way to big drops in prices and sales volume. Millions of people owe more than their houses are worth.

But in the other America, specifically in cities like Austin; Grand Forks, N.D.; Yakima, Wash.; and Salem, Ore., the available evidence suggests the real estate market is holding up. Prices there never boomed as crazily as they did in the big cities, and now, even though volume is down almost everywhere, prices in many of these towns are firm or rising.

We'll leave aside the fact falling prices in the struggling industrial towns and the falling prices on the coast are barely related to each other and focus instead on the last statement.

Are home prices in Austin, Texas indeed holding up? Let's look:

Comparing home price trends in Austin Texas, Phoenix Arizona, and San Diego CA

From our perspective, Austin is indeed holding up better than some of the most bubbly markets, like Phoenix and San Diego.

Keep in mind though that in every market, the answer is: it depends. It depends on your price point, it depends on your neighborhood. In fact if we dive into Austin a little deeper, we find where that even though the prices haven't adjusted deeply, we can see where market demand is indeed cooling.

Days on Market for homes in Austin Texas. Data as of February 15 2008. Each line is a price quartile. First Quartile are the most expense 25% of homes on the market.

Days on market is climbing steadily across all price points. Despite a seasonal improvement in market time, The high end of Austin is on the market for a pretty long time right now. Buyers are in no hurry.

Furthermore, in Austin, when you look at the price quartiles, you can see the top of the market is squeezing but the bottom remains reasonably solid. This often implies, as the Times suggests, that the underlying economy is strong, immigration is positive, and people aren't so worried about their jobs. Here's the chart of home prices in Austin, by quartile. Note the slight squeeze at the top end of the market.

Real Estate Price trends in Austin Texas as of February 15 2008

So I'll conclude with a cautious agreement with the Times. Yes indeed there are markets so far escaping major carnage. Many of these markets didn't have the incredible upside in the past few years, so that stands to reason. Finally though, nearly all markets are showing signs of weakness. The key worry for all these markets is that they're following the economy, not leading it. If a recession evolves into full bloom, I don't see how anyone is spared.

Links:

Austin Real Estate Report

San Diego Real Estate Report

Phoenix Real Estate Report

In the Dallas real estate market? D Magazine's Dallas Dirt blog is a great read. Among the insidery local rumors and excellent house porn, Candy Evans has been tapping our AltosCharts lately for some insightful interpretation of the housing market trends at the local level for all y'all Texans.

[aside: as a snobby Californian, this is what I instinctively think of when I think Dallas homes. But this makes me want to move there.]

Link: Our free Dallas Real Estate Research

Last week we published the February editition of our National Housing Market report [PDF download]. I was traveling and forgot to add it to the blog, so here it is. We've expanded the coverage this month and added a few more cities ebyond the initial 20 covered by the Case Shiller Index. We'll add a few more important cities in the upcoming versions of the reports too.

Here are the highlights from this month's report.

• Listing prices declined in 19 of 22 markets during January. Prices only increased in the New York metro area during January and were flat in Dallas and Phoenix.

• The largest monthly decline of 3.6% occurred in San Francisco. Over the three month period, listing prices in San Francisco have fallen by 6.1% from $708,551 to $665,100. The other California markets of Los Angeles and San Diego logged declines of more than 2% for the month of January.

• Property inventories declined in most markets except in the Northwestern markets of Seattle and Portland. Inventories tightened sharply in the Midwestern markets of Cleveland and Detroit with decreases of 10.4% and 5.4% respectively during January. Seasonal declines in listing inventories are typical during the winter months.

• Markets with the longest time-on-market are Miami and Minneapolis at an average of 144 days-on-market. Miami’s days-on-market only increased slightly from the previous month’s 143 days while Minneapolis jumped over 5% from 136 to 144 days. Sixteen of 22 markets had an average days-on-market of over 100.

• Denver led all markets with the fastest rate of inventory turnover at 61 days, followed closely by Dallas and San Diego at 80 days. The sharp decrease in Denver’s days-on-market indicator – almost 39% during the past three months – coupled with an inventory reduction of over 11% during the same period, should be a positive for listing prices in the coming spring selling season.

Jonathan Miller published the November Radar Logic RPX housing market report over the weekend. It's easy to spot that Sacramento is leading the nation down.

[aside: Radar Logic is cool. They measure Price Per Square Foot and try to do it across all properties, condos and single family homes, new and existing construction. No small task. The price per square foot approach is intended to measure value of the property regardless of the size of the property itself. In the real estate derivatives trading business, Radar is getting all the mindshare. Case Shiller is falling behind. more here.]

In the report just published for November, Sacramento saw a price-per-square-foot decline of 18%. Zowie. For those of you unfamiliar with California's central valley, this is an area dominated by lots of new construction, in huge projects, partly as Bay Area super-exurb. So the underlying economy in the Central Valley isn't nearly as dynamic as San Francisco, San Jose, or Los Angeles. Also much less dominated by the high-end, Sacramento is feeling the subprime fallout harder than most.

So Radar Logic is publishing for November. What are the real-time stats saying? Sacramento is not seeing any relief yet. Here's our price per square foot for Sacramento through February 1 2008.

Price Per Square Foot for single family homes in Sacramento, CA through Feb 1 2008. Notice the price is slightly higher than the Radar Logic number. That's because we track Condominiums separately and this is for the city of Sacramento specifically. The important factor is the direction.

Sacramento Housing Market Data Links:

Our free Sacramento Real Estate Research page

Here's a solid Sacramento Area Blog for more local flavor.

Money and technology are inseparable. Massive new tradable data sets are being exposed by the Web; new bottoms-up social networks are creating alternative ways of discovering investing ideas; a rising percentage of newswire content is being written and consumed by machines; new classes of monitoring services are revealing deep data that might otherwise go unnoticed and untraded for weeks; and real-time itself is being redefined.

"The conference is, of course, all about the confluence of Wall Street and Web 2.0. And what does that mean? Well, new ways of Web-2.0-style collaborating are changing money and investing, with the zero-sum game of Wall Street changing in the process. At the same time market mashups with new sources of web-based data -- auctions! real estate! pricing! weather! -- are transforming the never-ending hunt for a money-making edge."

I'll be presenting some data and observations on the Housing Futures markets, Case Shiller and Radar Logic RPX. Some cool stuff. If you're thinking about getting into the real estate derivatives trades, this is a session for you. Do try to stop by. Make sure you contact me if you do.

I generally try not to stray too far from the real estate topic at hand on this blog, but I want to call your attention this morning to an article by Kevin Kelly (founding editor of Wired Magazine among other literary accomplishments). Kelly's the rare "futurist" who deserves the title.

This week he published Better Than Free. The article captures succinctly, why in a world of free and freely copyable information, Altos Research just had another record month in sales.

In fact, Kelly's concepts also capture why our most successful real estate agent clients, in a world of commoditizers and discounters, command a premium, even in this crazy market.

When everything is free on the interwebs, what is it that people really want to pay for? Kelly identifies 8 generatives: uncopyable values generated or cultivated from within. Here's a snippet, do yourself a favor and read the whole article.

Immediacy: Sooner or later you can find a free copy of whatever you want, but getting a copy delivered to your inbox the moment it is released -- or even better, produced -- by its creators is a generative asset.

Personalization: A generic version of a concert recording may be free, but if you want a copy that has been tweaked to sound perfect in your particular living room -- as if it were preformed in your room -- you may be willing to pay a lot.

Interpretation: As the old joke goes: software, free. The manual, $10,000. [The listings? Free. The right neighborhood and home for you? ...]

It turns out while we weren't nearly so articulate about the process, these generatives have been the Altos DNA from day 1. How do we get you great information in real-time, and not just data, but analysis, personalized for you, and leverage-able into your business?

Anyway, to all our clients, readers, subscribers, partners: thanks for being with us. Rock on.