Altos Research Real Estate Insights

at the Inman Connect conference in New York a couple weeks ago. It's a great intro-to-Altos if you're wondering what we do.

Been getting a few requests about our opinion on the various proposes economic stimulus packages in the works - including sharply reduced short term rates, and some kind of tax relief. How will they impact the housing market? Are we seeing any psychological impact already?

First things first: Are we in recession already? Is a recession inevitable?

From where we sit, the current-recession answer is, No, it doesn't appear so. Slowdown, yes. But exports are strong with the weak dollar, and there other signs of okay-ness out there. Gonna be hard to avoid one before the end of the year though.

Here's my favorite way to look at recession probability. The folks at ECRI publish a weekly leading economic indicator (WLI). In several decades they've not missed a recession call and have had no false-positives. This data is good.

Weekly Leading Indicators. Recession Watch from ECRI

What's this chart tell us? This data leads the economy by 6-9 months. ECRI looks for the Three P's of drop in its economic statistics before it calls a recession. Pronounced (check), persistent (check), pervasive (allllmost).

We're in the danger zone here, which is why immediate monetary (interest rates) and fiscal (taxes, etc) stimulus might just work.

Where does the housing market fall into all this?

We know that the real estate market is generally lousy. But really, really low mortgage rates mean that you can lock in affordability, if you have the credit. From Bloomberg:

The yield curve as of January 27 2008. Low rates are good. source: Bloomberg. [whose New York offices I visited last week, incidentally. Very cool. Googlesque. Maybe nicer.]

For a long time, our worst case scenario here at Altos has been recession plus high interest rates. We've avoided that so far. As a result the pain in the housing market is most pronounced at the margins: Overstretched, with weak credit. New home construction. Here's what I mean.

Seattle, Kirkland, and Redmond home prices as of January 25, 2008. Not the persistent weakness at the low-end of the market. This scenario is similar to what we're seeing in most economically strong parts of the country.

So the weakness, while felt across the spectrum, is most acutely painful at the low-end of the market. That implies that a deep recession with it's job loss and income uncertainty is what it'll take to knock the final leg of the stool out from under the the rest of the market.

Conclusion: stimulate away, Uncle Sam, and do it quick.

As you know, Altos Research specializes in real-time market analytics in the housing market. What's less obvious are some of the cool ways people use our stuff. As any successful startup, I suppose, we have lots of customers using our real estate data in ways totally unexpected initially.

Recently, people have been asking us for a more complete list of the Altos Research services and a little about who uses them. I thought I'd assemble a list here for easy consumption, organized by the types of folks on our customer list. (Apologies in advance that this post is a little more salesy than usual. Just looking to provide a little insight into our company. Do check out some of the sites I link to below. There's a lot of great work out there.)

Real Estate Agents and Teams

Product: Our Professional Subscription. Personalized reports + AltosCharts and lead generation forms for web sites.

Usage: Home Buyer and Seller information, lead generation, blogging

Reference Customers: We have hundreds of professional subscribers, but a really great usage of the system for driving web leads is done by the Harper Team in San Ramon, CA. Our friend Chris Iverson with the Ventoux Group at Keller Williams in Palo Alto is highly effective at integrating market analytics into his listing presentations and working with buyers. He teaches a class on the topic. Chris Schweiger in Scottsdale is one of many Altos-bloggers. [A more complete list of Altos-bloggers coming soon.]

Real Estate Brokerages, Title Company Offices

Product: Professional Subscription, site licenses, occasional customization

Usage: We frequently set up office-level subscriptions for brokers who sponsor for their whole team.

Reference Customers: Paragon Real Estate Group in San Francisco. Fortune International in Miami is another. Oakville Properties is a client with offices in the Bay Area, Las Vegas, and Orlando.

Home Buyers and Sellers, Independent Investors, Appraisers, some Agents

Product: Market Analysis Details Reports, per city. Our Basic subscription.

Usage: People want to know more about the market than their competition and don't need the personal marketing/branding benefits of our Pro subscription level. When we started this company, we naively thought this group would be our bread and butter. In truth, our local market free research pages drives a lot of our web traffic and is only indirectly responsible for driving our major sources of revenue. Note that we're now available in over 20 metros around the country (Here's Portland!) We open up more each week.

Some of these folks will add the AltosCharts to their subscription so they can build their own reports, query different stats on the fly and learn about any zip code in their region.

Reference Customers: We have tons of basic subscribers all around the country now, even some international (folks who tend to be researching the condo markets in Las Vegas and Miami. Surprise, surprise). My favorite quote was from a real estate investor, Dan, who said, "I LOVE your reports! I'd have had to spend a YEAR compiling this kind of information for myself!" [his caps, not mine.]

Financial Firms, Banks, Hedge Funds, Lenders

Product:AltosCharts and AltosStats Data. Bulk data subscriptions.

Usage: Trading and fundamental analysis. We have a growing stable of Wall Street players that feed on our data pipe--from the bulge-bracket banks to long/short hedge funds. The most obvious application for our real-time market data is the housing futures markets. I write occasionally about how our data leads the Case Shiller Index by three months in basically all the markets we cover. The Radar Logic RPX is actually getting more attention on Wall Street these days and we'll be publishing some latest analysis there very soon too. Our trading clients tend to use our market data as an input into massive "quant" analytics systems. They suck in CSV files, where ours is one of many input sources, bringing a unique perspective.

In addition to the real estate derivatives markets, some of our Wall Street subscribers use our data for fundamental analysis in their equities trades. For example, if you're a hedge fund thinking of going long a regional bank in the South East, you might want to understand how the trends in the local housing market are going to impact their loan portfolio.

Reference customers: Most of these folks prefer to remain, ahem, anonymous. Though a good example is Tradition Financial Services, one the leading real estate derivatives brokers, who use our data for spot-pricing the housing market and publishing research for their derivatives clients.

Real Estate Web Sites and Consumer/Investor Portals

Product: AltosCharts - local market data

Usage: We're seeing a number of really innovative startups working on providing great decision making tools for consumers and particularly investors in real estate. These folks turn to Altos to easily answer for their site visitors/members, "Hows the market?" They integrate AltosCharts into the user

Reference Partners: DeedQuest is doing some cool real estate investor products. CondoDomain is building a national condominium site for consumers.

Agent Marketing and Technology Providers

Product: AltosCharts and Partner Program

Usage: These partners provide web sites, marketing, blogging, lead generation tools to real estate agents. We love our partners. We find great symbiotic relationships, because we're all helping real estate pros market more efficiently in an internet world.

Reference partners: Kevin and Pat at Domus, RealBird, BringTheBlog are all great examples.

Who knew the real estate ecosystem was so complex? And we've only just scratched the surface. 2008 is rocking already. We'll have some big announcements, new partners, and new products coming this year. Stick around!

Last week at the Inman Connect conference in NYC, one of the most-talked-about sessions was Brian Boero's "50 Tools and Technologies to Help You Win in a Slow Housing Market."

Brian is a partner at 1000Watt Consulting and a sophisticated marketer. The slides from Brian's rapid-fire presentation are now available at Inman. In it, he gave a nice (and totally unsolicited) plug for Altos Research (p49). Quite simply, "Know more about the market than your competition."

Inman's a marvelous confab for real estate professionals. The great thing about this message is that it applies to all our clients: Realtors, Wall Street traders, home buyers and sellers, investors, lenders, et al., captured in one pithy phrase. This from I guy I'd never met till I thanked him for the mention. Rock on.

This guy Brian has some mad skillz. For more, tune in to his blog on real estate marketing and technology.

Last month I indulged in some year-end speculation about the state of the RE.net in 2008. One of the things I predicted was that we'd soon see one of the traffic measuring firms show Trulia's web traffic cross over Zillow's. I just didn't expect it this soon.

Trulia.com, Realtor.com, Zillow.com web site traffic. Chart from Comscore via Techcrunch.

ht: techcrunch

Last month we started publishing the Real-Time National Housing Market Report with Steve at Real IQ. The January 2008 edition was published yesterday. You can download the full report here.

The report was picked up today morning by the Dallas Morning News. Dallas is notable because we've watched demand stay at less-bad-than-most.

Here's the press release that accompanied this months report.

HOUSING PRICES CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN DECEMBER

Time-on-Market Increased as Housing Market Demand Falls Faster than Supply

MOUNTAIN VIEW, CA – January 9, 2008 – Prices of properties listed for-sale fell in 16 of 20 major markets according to the Real-Time Housing Market Report, jointly published by Altos Research, the premier source for real-time real-estate market research, and market analysis consultancy Real IQ™.

Prices fell at the fastest rate in San Francisco, down 4.6% during the 4th quarter. Prices also fell by more than three percent in the Las Vegas, San Diego, Los Angeles and Detroit markets during the most recent three month period.

Data in the Real-Time National Housing Market Report is based on analysis of over one million properties currently listed for-sale in 20 metropolitan markets across the country. The report is the most timelysource of housing market data on current market activity.

The report also found that the time-on-market increased in virtually all markets. Miami experienced the longest time-on-market span with an average days-on-market of 143 in December. Minneapolis and Detroit both had the second highest average days-on-market at 136.

“Sellers continue to adjust their price expectations downward but not quickly enough to keep pace with declining demand,” said Stephen Bedikian, partner and research director for Real IQ. “Until we see
declines in both inventory levels and days-on-market, we won’t have any confidence that supply and demand are balancing out.”

For-sale listed property inventories declined in most markets during the past three months except in the Florida markets of Tampa and Miami which posted inventory increases of 10.5% and 4.0% respectively.

Inventories declined dramatically in Boston with a decrease of 21.7%. Inventory also fell more than 15% in Minneapolis, Denver and Seattle. “Declining inventory levels are essential to a recovery in the housing market,” said Michael Simonsen CEO and co-founder of Altos Research. “However, if the economy continues to slow or enters a recession, we may see inventories balloon again in the Spring and downward pricing pressure on sellers will intensify.”

The report examines housing pricing, inventory levels and market conditions in 20 major U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington, DC. The first report was published December 7, 2007 and will be released every month.

We've had some really nice attention in the press and blogosphere the past week or so. Here's a quick summary so you can see what people are saying about Altos.

O'Reilly Radar: Tim O'Reilly highlights our real-time data products for Wall Street and the housing derivatives markets. I'll be presenting on this topic at the O'Reilly-sponsored Money:Tech conference in New York February 6-8.

In SFGate.com / San Francisco Chronicle Carol Llyod finds her friends in the market for a home in San Francisco - everyone is surprised how hot the market is. I love this kind of analysis. The data reveal so much more than the headlines can capture. Carol - have your friends email me and I'll set them up with the neighborhood level and insights that we do in our detail reporting.

Dustin thinks we're going to get acquired. And Robbie gives us a nice plug on Rain City Guide.

The bloggers at Redfin have been especially prolific lately. I like the approach Redfin uses for their blogging work. They've got a team of bloggers, each with an intelligent voice, tackling the local real estate markets they're in. None of it is too controversial, but it's solid content, targeted well for their customers.

Altos Links:

National Data for the Housing Derivatives and Case Shiller markets

San Francisco housing market

Some posts just write themselves.

Inventory of homes on the market in San Jose California as of January 2008

Single Family Home Prices in San Jose California as of January 1, 2008

Can't. Help. It. Must. Write. More.

Ugly? You betcha. Do these tell the whole story? Not a chance. In Silicon Valley, San Jose is the dominant market, of course. San Jose is a diverse community, with lots of sub-prime and other crazy loans in the past few years. But also some really great neighborhoods with prosperous, fully employed folks. Lots of big, but not-risky loans too. Here's how the market in a desirable part of town, Willow Glen, is holding up. I've done the price chart in Quartiles so you can see the trends at each price point in the market.

Homes in the Willow Glen neighborhood in San Jose, CA zip 95125. Prices holding up much better than the broader market in San Jose.

Available homes in Willow Glen neighborhood of San Jose CA as of January 1 2008. Inventory is up, but much less than the rest of the city.

Link: San Jose Housing Market.