Can the Riff Raff determine the value of your home? My-Currency.com

I've said frequently I am a huge fan of the predictive power of futures markets. Today the DEMO 2007 conference brings us the latest prediction market innovation in the form of an ambitious startup and new Altos Research partner (more on that below), My-Currency.com

[update] My Currency's DEMO Demo is here.

The concept behind "predictive markets" is that the collective wisdom of enough properly incented people can provide insights beyond the abilities of any individual.

Usually the incentive is your cash. My Currency does a cool twist and incents its market players (Realtors or other service providers for example) by tracking their reputation with points on how well they trade on a market. Later, a consumer can come to the sight poking around for say, South of Market Condo market information and find the experts with the best reputation for knowledge in that part of town. Could be a great marketing channel.

The company has already been positioned as the anti-Zillow. And the concept may have some legs. You know how everyone has an opinion of the Zillow price for your home? Well My-Currency let's you put your reputation where your mouth is.

You can also track the market by neighborhood with their futures market
on price-per-square-foot by zip code. The spot pricing in this market
is provided by Altos Research.

We experimented last year with a futures market at inklingmarkets.com. There we set up the San Jose median home price market (which by the way successfully predicted San Jose home price changes in 2006). My suspicion is that My Currency, by being focused on real estate, has an advantage over the ad hoc markets of Inkling. In any market, liquidity is the key. So My-Currency should have better volume of real estate traders than someone like Inkling.

The user interface for making a trade on the My Currency market is really simple and it's kinda fun too. Give it a shot and let's see how your expertise flies. I'm trading on the indexes. Is that inside information? Maybe. Can you beat me? If you know your neighborhood!

Joel at FoREM, as usual, has a thoughtful and insightful review.

VentureBeat covered My-Currency's launch story yesterday.